Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:38:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

DB 0xdb85…3a13 economics 3 markets active 2h ago coverage 14d

RISKYcopy with care economics specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted

Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized +$361 · open −$363

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip

Net edge-13%after slip

Net WR0%break-even

Win rate0%0W / 2L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$770per market

Trades / day0.4pace

Kalshi-fit100%portable

Net worth$363now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 14d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +0%

net ROI/market (all)-9.6%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	1	-0.1%	-9.6%	0%	0%	-9.6%
≤30d	2	-0.1%	-9.6%	0%	0%	-9.6%
≤90d	2	-0.1%	-9.6%	0%	0%	-9.6%
all	2	-0.1%	-9.6%	0%	0%	-9.6%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.4 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-9.6%	0%	-9.6%
10%	-18.3%	0%	-18.3%
15%	-26.2%	0%	-26.2%
20%	-33.4%	0%	-33.4%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top —% · top 2 —% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -0% too few recent

Fragile wins

—% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

— vs −$1 no data

Profit factor

×0.0 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage

Net worth$363

Realized+$361

Unrealized−$363

Win rate (resolved)0%

Wins / losses0 / 2

Open positions1

Markets (closed)2 / 3

History coverage14d

Avg bet$770

Trades / day0.4

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 2 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?	Yes	0¢	0¢	$727	$363	−$363 (-50%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee	Jun 16	$773	−$1	-0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me	Jun 03	$774	−$1	-0%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me	BUY Yes	0¢	$763	1h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee	SELL No	100¢	$772	22h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee	BUY No	100¢	$773	25h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me	SELL No	100¢	$773	13d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me	BUY No	100¢	$774	13d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $363.46 · official $363.46 (match) · 5 history records