Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T18:09:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0

score

DB 0xdb84…468f sports 24 markets active 1h ago coverage 258d

TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$9 (+8%) realized +$16 · open −$7

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip

Net edge-7%after slip

Net WR55%break-even

Win rate60%12W / 8L

Drawdown82%max

Avg bet$5per market

Trades / day0.1pace

Fees−$1est.

Kalshi-fit83%portable

Net worth$10now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$11

7 days+$19

14 days+$9

30 days+$9

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +55%

net ROI/market (all)-7.1%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	16	+22.1%	+10.5%	69%	69%	+12.4%
≤30d	18	+8.6%	-1.8%	61%	61%	-0.1%
≤90d	18	+8.6%	-1.8%	61%	61%	-0.1%
all	20	+2.7%	-7.1%	60%	55%	-1.3%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.1 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-7.1%	55%	-1.3%
10%	-16.0%	45%	-10.8%
15%	-24.1%	35%	-19.4%
20%	-31.5%	20%	-27.3%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 22% · top 2 38% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +10% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

8% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +3% · $-wt +9% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +14% → late -8% edge faded

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$3 vs −$3 · ×0.91 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×1.36 profit barely above losses

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

258d coverage

Net worth$10

Realized+$16

Unrealized−$7

Win rate (resolved)60%

Wins / losses12 / 8

Est. fees paid−$1

Open positions4

Markets (closed)20 / 24

History coverage258d

Avg bet$5

Trades / day0.1

Drawdown82%

Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 4 History 20 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5)	Saudi Arabia	60¢	60¢	$10	$10	−$0 (-1%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5	Over	63¢	0¢	$1	$0	−$1 (-99%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5	Over	57¢	0¢	$5	$0	−$5 (-100%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5	Over	35¢	0¢	$1	$0	−$1 (-100%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5	Jun 15	$2	−$2	-100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5	Jun 15	$2	+$2	+113%
Netherlands vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 0.5	Jun 15	$5	−$5	-100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5	Jun 15	$4	+$1	+35%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5	Jun 14	$1	$0	+49%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5	Jun 14	$5	+$1	+18%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 1.5	Jun 14	$5	+$3	+54%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5	Jun 14	$2	−$2	-100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$3	−$3	-100%
Australia vs. Türkiye: 1st Half O/U 0.5	Jun 14	$10	+$5	+49%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Haiti O/U 0.5	Jun 14	$7	+$7	+100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 14	$10	+$2	+19%
Brazil vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 0.5	Jun 14	$5	+$2	+47%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12?	Jun 13	$12	+$3	+27%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw?	Jun 13	$2	+$5	+248%
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 12	$5	$0	-5%
Ethereum Up or Down on October 1?	Jun 07	$5	−$5	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on September 30?	Jun 07	$5	−$5	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on October 1?	Jan 15	$1	−$1	-100%
Solana Up or Down on October 1?	Jan 15	$2	$0	+0%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	35¢	$1	1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5	BUY Over	63¢	$1	1h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5)	BUY Saudi Arabia	60¢	$10	4h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5	BUY Over	57¢	$5	5h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5	BUY Over	60¢	$2	19h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	46¢	$2	25h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5	BUY Over	73¢	$4	25h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5	BUY Over	66¢	$1	25h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	84¢	$5	25h
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 1.5	BUY Over	64¢	$5	26h
Netherlands vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 0.5	BUY Over	68¢	$5	27h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	27¢	$3	37h
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	46¢	$2	38h
Australia vs. Türkiye: 1st Half O/U 0.5	BUY Over	66¢	$10	38h
Haiti vs. Scotland: Haiti O/U 0.5	BUY Under	52¢	$2	40h
Haiti vs. Scotland: Haiti O/U 0.5	BUY Under	48¢	$5	40h
Brazil vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 0.5	BUY Over	67¢	$5	2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13?	BUY No	83¢	$10	2d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12?	BUY No	78¢	$12	2d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw?	BUY Yes	28¢	$2	3d
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	62¢	$5	3d
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	63¢	$5	10d
Solana Up or Down on October 1?	BUY Up	100¢	$2	257d
Bitcoin Up or Down on October 1?	BUY Down	0¢	$1	257d
Bitcoin Up or Down on September 30?	BUY Up	2¢	$5	258d
Ethereum Up or Down on October 1?	BUY Down	52¢	$5	258d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9.93 · official $9.96 (match) · 48 history records