Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T17:16:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DB 0xdb7d…0efe sports 109 markets active 2h ago coverage 56d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$426 (-7%) realized −$506 · open +$80
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate39%41W / 65L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$57per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Fees−$44est.
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$323now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$384
7 days+$252
14 days+$252
30 days+$100
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 52% −$33
sports 46% −$424
world 2% +$96
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-26.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +2.5% -7.3% 36% 36% +33.1%
≤30d 33 -10.8% -19.3% 42% 39% +0.9%
≤90d 106 -18.3% -26.1% 39% 38% -15.0%
all 106 -18.3% -26.1% 39% 38% -15.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.1% 38% -15.0%
10% -33.2% 38% -23.2%
15% -39.6% 36% -30.6%
20% -45.6% 31% -37.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -20% → late -16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$52 vs −$40 · ×1.31 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

56d coverage
Net worth$323
Realized−$506
Unrealized+$80
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses41 / 65
Est. fees paid−$44
Open positions2
Markets (closed)106 / 109
History coverage56d
Avg bet$57
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 106 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Yes 51¢ 76¢ $216 $323 +$108 (+50%)
Set Handicap: Choinski (-1.5) vs Heide (+1.5) Choinski 24¢ $28 $0 −$28 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 61 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $102 +$103 +101%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $60 +$84 +140%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -98%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $26 +$50 +197%
Spread: England (-3.5) Jun 17 $4 −$4 -97%
Spread: England (-2.5) Jun 17 $15 −$15 -98%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $7 −$7 -97%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $152 +$83 +55%
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) Jun 17 $24 +$104 +442%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $56 −$55 -98%
Belgium leading at halftime? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $15 −$15 -98%
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $14 −$14 -98%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $29 −$28 -98%
Will CA Mineiro win on 2026-05-27? May 27 $21 +$10 +50%
CR Vasco da Gama leading at halftime? May 27 $11 +$10 +89%
CA Mineiro leading at halftime? May 27 $11 −$11 -99%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-27? May 27 $10 +$12 +114%
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Hamad Medjedovic May 27 $5 −$5 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Dino Prizmic May 27 $8 +$7 +99%
Will Cusco FC win on 2026-05-26? May 27 $4 −$4 -97%
Santos FC leading at halftime? May 27 $9 +$6 +64%
Will AC Milan win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $18 −$18 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Taylor Fritz vs Nishesh Basavareddy May 24 $11 +$6 +56%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $5 +$5 +89%
Spread: Fluminense FC (-1.5) May 23 $10 −$9 -98%
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-05-24? May 23 $21 −$21 -98%
Clube Náutico Capibaribe vs. Cuiabá EC: Both Teams to Score May 22 $14 −$14 -98%
Set 1 Winner: Mboko vs Cristian May 22 $10 +$5 +46%
Will Deportivo La Guaira FC vs. CS Independiente Rivadavia end in a dr May 21 $35 −$34 -98%
Will CS Independiente Rivadavia win on 2026-05-21? May 21 $35 $0 +1%
Spread: CR Vasco da Gama (-1.5) May 20 $18 −$17 -97%
Will Santos FC win on 2026-05-20? May 20 $81 −$80 -99%
Hamburg European Open: Terence Atmane vs Tomas Etcheverry May 18 $26 −$25 -97%
Spread: Liverpool FC (-1.5) May 15 $50 −$48 -98%
Sinner vs. Medvedev: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 May 15 $29 −$28 -98%
Ruud vs. Darderi: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5 May 15 $29 −$29 -98%
Will Real Oviedo win on 2026-05-14? May 14 $16 −$16 -97%
Will Real Madrid CF vs. Real Oviedo end in a draw? May 14 $34 −$33 -98%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-12? May 12 $100 +$76 +76%
Will Real Betis Balompié win on 2026-05-12? May 12 $123 +$78 +63%
Spread: Al Nassr Saudi Club (-2.5) May 12 $16 −$16 -97%
Gauff vs. Andreeva: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 May 12 $100 +$40 +40%
Set Handicap: Zverev (-1.5) vs Darderi (+1.5) May 12 $50 −$49 -99%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Lorenzo Musetti vs Casper Ruud May 12 $29 −$28 -98%
Avalanche vs. Wild May 12 $45 +$34 +76%
Rainbow Six Siege: FaZe Clan vs Wildcard Gaming (BO3) - BLAST R6 Major May 12 $105 +$40 +38%
Will Sport Lisboa e Benfica win on 2026-05-11? May 11 $3 −$3 -97%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Spirit (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage May 11 $2 +$6 +307%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-05-11? May 11 $101 −$100 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 51¢ $219 1h
Set Handicap: Choinski (-1.5) vs Heide (+1.5) BUY Choinski 24¢ $29 3h
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Colombia 49¢ $102 15h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $48 16h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 97¢ $97 16h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 40¢ $60 18h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $15 18h
Spread: England (-1.5) SELL England 100¢ $76 19h
Spread: England (-3.5) BUY England $4 21h
Spread: England (-2.5) BUY England 15¢ $15 21h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 33¢ $26 21h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes $7 22h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? AND Portugal to win the second half? BUY 65¢ $375 26h
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) BUY Argentina 18¢ $24 40h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $152 40h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 24¢ $56 2d
Belgium leading at halftime? BUY Yes 46¢ $20 2d
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 29¢ $15 3d
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 26¢ $14 3d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 23¢ $29 3d
Will CA Mineiro win on 2026-05-27? SELL Yes 94¢ $31 21d
Will CA Mineiro win on 2026-05-27? BUY Yes 62¢ $21 21d
CR Vasco da Gama leading at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $21 21d
CA Mineiro leading at halftime? BUY Yes 56¢ $11 21d
CR Vasco da Gama leading at halftime? BUY Yes 52¢ $11 21d
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-27? SELL Yes 100¢ $22 21d
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Hamad Medjedovic BUY Hamad Medjedovic 20¢ $5 21d
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-27? BUY Yes 46¢ $10 21d
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Dino Prizmic SELL Joao Fonseca 99¢ $15 21d
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Dino Prizmic BUY Joao Fonseca 49¢ $8 22d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $323.43 · official $323.43 (match) · 167 history records