Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:07:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
DB 0xdb7d…7862 sports 1405 markets active 0h ago coverage 98d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 97d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$2,960 (-3%) realized −$2,967 · open +$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate52%719W / 664L
Whale WR17%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$61per market
Trades / day20.7pace
Fees−$793est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$361now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 98d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 98% −$4,906
other 1% −$124
world 0% −$64
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-12.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 178 +3.0% -6.8% 51% 49% -29.2%
≤30d 442 +4.8% -5.2% 56% 54% -15.2%
≤90d 1243 -1.7% -11.1% 53% 52% -14.3%
all 1383 -3.0% -12.2% 52% 51% -15.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.2% 51% -15.0%
10% ← realistic here -20.6% 50% -23.1%
15% -28.3% 47% -30.5%
20% -35.3% 40% -37.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 17% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -5% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$45 vs −$57 · ×0.8 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

98d coverage
Net worth$361
Realized−$2,967
Unrealized+$7
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses719 / 664
Whale WR (big bets)17%
Est. fees paid−$793
Open positions22
Markets (closed)1383 / 1405
History coverage98d ⚠
Avg bet$61
Trades / day20.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 22 History 1383 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz Taylor Fritz 74¢ 78¢ $75 $80 +$5 (+6%)
New York Liberty vs. Chicago Sky: O/U 169.5 Under 50¢ 50¢ $39 $39 −$0 (-0%)
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Portugal 52¢ 50¢ $40 $38 −$1 (-3%)
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? No 80¢ 81¢ $34 $35 +$1 (+2%)
Minnesota Lynx vs. Los Angeles Sparks: O/U 177.5 Under 51¢ 52¢ $23 $23 +$0 (+1%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? No 37¢ 38¢ $21 $22 +$1 (+4%)
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5 Over 50¢ 60¢ $18 $22 +$4 (+20%)
Seattle Storm vs. PortlandFire: O/U 162.5 Under 51¢ 51¢ $12 $12 +$0 (+0%)
Quimsa vs. Gimnasia: O/U 154.5 Under 48¢ 45¢ $13 $12 −$1 (-6%)
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? No 72¢ 74¢ $11 $11 +$0 (+2%)
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? No 75¢ 74¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-1%)
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? No 75¢ 76¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+2%)
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? No 80¢ 80¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+1%)
Spread: Ghana (-1.5) Panama 81¢ 81¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+1%)
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? No 84¢ 82¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-2%)
Spread: Brazil (-4.5) Brazil 18¢ 16¢ $7 $6 −$1 (-8%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? No 24¢ 24¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Uzbekistan 56¢ 55¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 Under 31¢ 30¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-5%)
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? No 83¢ 80¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-4%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? No 82¢ 82¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+1%)
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) South Africa 69¢ 72¢ $2 $3 +$0 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 17 $25 +$27 +105%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $4 $0 +11%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Mets vs. Cin Jun 17 $17 −$17 -100%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $23 −$23 -100%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 17 $44 −$44 -100%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 173.5 Jun 17 $31 −$31 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 17 $64 −$64 -100%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 17 $13 +$12 +93%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 17 $8 +$1 +13%
France leading at halftime? Jun 16 $22 +$20 +89%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $50 +$7 +13%
HSBC Championships: Kamil Majchrzak vs Jiri Lehecka Jun 16 $51 +$29 +57%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $10 +$10 +101%
Grass Court Championships: Elina Svitolina vs Anna Kalinskaya Jun 16 $59 +$29 +50%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $82 −$82 -100%
Londrina EC vs. Avaí FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $5 +$7 +140%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $24 −$24 -100%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $26 +$5 +18%
Toronto Tempo vs. Indiana Fever: O/U 176.5 Jun 15 $38 −$37 -99%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $24 −$24 -100%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $51 −$40 -79%
LoL: Solary vs Galions (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Jun 15 $167 −$167 -100%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $6 +$3 +48%
Dota 2: Nande+4 vs Noir Esports (BO3) - European Pro League Group B Jun 15 $13 $0 +0%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $15 +$135 +900%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $25 +$24 +95%
Counter-Strike: Bebop vs RUSTEC (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Sta Jun 15 $65 +$56 +86%
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $57 −$57 -100%
Nottingham Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Maria Sakkari Jun 15 $62 +$37 +60%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La Jun 15 $47 +$30 +64%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Suzan Lamens vs Dalma Galfi Jun 15 $75 +$31 +42%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $89 +$24 +27%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $6 +$2 +36%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 15 $19 −$19 -100%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $5 +$6 +114%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $28 +$18 +62%
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $100 +$34 +34%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 14 $9 −$9 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 14 $94 −$94 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $43 +$14 +32%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 14 $6 +$2 +32%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Quimsa vs. Gimnasia: O/U 154.5 BUY Under 48¢ $13 1m
Seattle Storm vs. PortlandFire: O/U 162.5 BUY Under 51¢ $12 1h
New York Liberty vs. Chicago Sky: O/U 169.5 BUY Under 50¢ $40 1h
Minnesota Lynx vs. Los Angeles Sparks: O/U 177.5 BUY Under 51¢ $23 5h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox SELL Toronto Blue Jays 100¢ $25 7h
France leading at halftime? SELL No 100¢ $42 11h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? SELL No 100¢ $57 11h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Los Angeles Angels 48¢ $25 31h
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Mets vs. Cin BUY No 51¢ $17 32h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $10 34h
Toronto Tempo vs. Indiana Fever: O/U 176.5 BUY Under 51¢ $38 34h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Toronto Blue Jays 51¢ $13 34h
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 173.5 BUY Over 50¢ $31 42h
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La SELL Top Esports Challenger 100¢ $77 44h
LoL: Solary vs Galions (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs BUY Solary 64¢ $167 44h
Counter-Strike: Bebop vs RUSTEC (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Sta BUY Bebop 53¢ $65 2d
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La BUY Top Esports Challenger 60¢ $47 2d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 61¢ $18 2d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 61¢ $21 2d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 51¢ $25 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 10¢ $1 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 10¢ $14 2d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL 9z 38¢ $11 2d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 39¢ $11 2d
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 100¢ $113 2d
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? SELL No 100¢ $8 2d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 100¢ $46 2d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 53¢ $24 2d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 52¢ $46 2d
Spread: Brazil (-4.5) BUY Brazil 18¢ $7 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $360.76 · official $360.90 (match) · 3500 history records