Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T23:26:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DB 0xdb7c…03f9 other 32 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$17,448 (-24%) realized −$17,599 · open +$151
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -42% what you keep after slip
Net edge-42%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate39%12W / 19L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2,276per market
Trades / day12.0pace
Fees−$47est.
Kalshi-fit38%portable
Net worth$696now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 89% −$18,338
world 6% +$1,417
sports 5% −$1,907
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-29.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 -22.4% -29.8% 39% 32% -33.3%
≤30d 31 -22.4% -29.8% 39% 32% -33.3%
≤90d 31 -22.4% -29.8% 39% 32% -33.3%
all 31 -22.4% -29.8% 39% 32% -33.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.0 tr/day
realistic slip~14%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -29.8% 32% -33.3%
10% ← realistic here -36.5% 26% -39.7%
15% -42.6% 19% -45.5%
20% -48.3% 19% -50.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 46% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -26% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt -26% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$4,092) neutral
Persistence
early -37% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$466 vs −$1,293 · ×0.36 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.23 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$696
Realized−$17,599
Unrealized+$151
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses12 / 19
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$47
Open positions1
Markets (closed)31 / 32
History coverage6d
Avg bet$2,276
Trades / day12.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit38%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 31 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Yes 78¢ 100¢ $545 $696 +$151 (+28%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 18 $153 +$87 +57%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $204 +$113 +56%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $359 +$506 +141%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 4.5 Jun 18 $506 −$13 -2%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $51 −$49 -96%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $2,137 −$2,056 -96%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $839 +$457 +54%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 17 $1,028 −$82 -8%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $10 −$9 -89%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $4,963 −$3,203 -64%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $203 −$11 -5%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $24 −$13 -56%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $131 −$10 -8%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $101 +$11 +11%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $51 −$50 -97%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $229 +$120 +52%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $307 +$193 +63%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $204 −$15 -7%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 17 $1,049 −$1,049 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $4,599 +$1,417 +31%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $1,016 −$402 -40%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10,063 −$6,091 -60%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $1,017 −$1,004 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10,928 +$1,171 +11%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $9,477 +$424 +4%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $6,214 −$5,278 -85%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $4,092 −$4,024 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10,046 +$810 +8%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1,273 −$1,202 -94%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $997 +$276 +28%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Canada (-1.5) SELL Canada 91¢ $241 42m
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 79¢ $51 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 79¢ $249 1h
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Canada 56¢ $51 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 79¢ $51 1h
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Canada 56¢ $102 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 77¢ $203 1h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 29¢ $52 7h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 27¢ $52 7h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 91¢ $494 7h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 50¢ $51 7h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 49¢ $205 7h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 91¢ $506 9h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $204 10h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? SELL Yes $2 22h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL No $81 22h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 47¢ $51 23h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 75¢ $2,035 23h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 74¢ $102 23h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 51¢ $20 26h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 50¢ $102 26h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL No 38¢ $946 27h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 SELL Over $1 28h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 22¢ $1,471 28h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 65¢ $4,302 29h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 65¢ $51 29h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 65¢ $102 29h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 90¢ $288 29h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 32¢ $10 30h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 57¢ $196 31h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $696.10 · official $696.10 (match) · 89 history records