Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T16:03:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
DB 0xdb76…1b2b other 17 markets active 2h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$13 (+4%) realized +$13 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate94%15W / 1L
Drawdown16%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day3.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit35%portable
Net worth$69now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 91% +$9
sports 5% +$3
crypto 2% $0
world 1% −$1
weather 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-3.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +6.2% -3.9% 94% 38% -5.3%
≤30d 16 +6.2% -3.9% 94% 38% -5.3%
≤90d 16 +6.2% -3.9% 94% 38% -5.3%
all 16 +6.2% -3.9% 94% 38% -5.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.9% 38% -5.3%
10% -13.1% 19% -14.4%
15% -21.5% 6% -22.7%
20% -29.2% 6% -30.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 36% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
60% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late +8% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.47 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×7.09 per $1 lost it wins $7.09
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$69
Realized+$13
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)94%
Wins / losses15 / 1
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)16 / 17
History coverage6d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day3.4
Drawdown16%
Kalshi-fit35%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 16 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 0 France? No 96¢ 95¢ $69 $69 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Qingdao Hainiu FC 3 - 0 Yunnan Yukun FC? Jun 26 $68 +$1 +2%
Exact Score: Paraguay 2 - 0 Australia? Jun 26 $67 +$1 +2%
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 0 Germany? Jun 25 $51 +$3 +5%
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 1 Germany? Jun 25 $12 +$1 +11%
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $9 +$2 +27%
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 0.5 Jun 24 $8 $0 +5%
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 1 Canada? Jun 24 $8 +$1 +8%
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 2 DR Congo? Jun 24 $8 $0 +2%
Exact Score: England 1 - 0 Ghana? Jun 23 $7 +$1 +11%
Exact Score: Portugal 0 - 0 Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $7 $0 +3%
Exact Score: Jordan 0 - 0 Algeria? Jun 23 $3 $0 +7%
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 1 Senegal? Jun 23 $4 $0 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 39°C on June 22? Jun 22 $2 +$1 +33%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 22 $2 +$1 +63%
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $6 $0 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $68.75 · official $68.75 (match) · 32 history records