Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T09:30:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
DB 0xdb74…53c8 other 108 markets active 2h ago coverage 127d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,157 (-1%) realized −$1,158 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate25%27W / 80L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,066per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$23est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$539now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$14
14 days−$20
30 days−$1,408
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 44% −$10
politics 34% −$47
sports 15% −$1,132
culture 5% −$6
world 1% $0
economics 1% −$2
crypto 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 18 -5.6% -14.6% 11% 0% -15.2%
≤90d 72 -12.2% -20.6% 11% 6% -11.6%
all 107 -0.3% -9.8% 25% 16% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 16% -10.5%
10% -18.4% 16% -19.0%
15% -26.3% 13% -26.9%
20% -33.5% 9% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
37% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,380) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +1% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$46 vs −$31 · ×1.51 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.51 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

127d coverage
Net worth$539
Realized−$1,158
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses27 / 80
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$23
Open positions1
Markets (closed)107 / 108
History coverage127d
Avg bet$1,066
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 107 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $537 $539 +$1 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 19 $1,710 −$3 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 19 $436 −$1 -0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $1,903 −$2 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 14 $920 −$1 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $911 −$1 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 13 $908 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $4,347 −$5 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 07 $755 −$1 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 07 $3,075 −$4 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 06 $663 −$1 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 04 $1,700 −$2 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 04 $986 −$2 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 04 $912 −$1 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 03 $920 −$1 -0%
Will XRP reach $3.00 in May? Jun 03 $9 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May? Jun 03 $12 $0 +0%
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 31 $721 −$1 -0%
Avalanche vs. Wild May 23 $1,380 −$1,380 -100%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 09 $1,377 −$2 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? May 09 $1,359 −$2 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? May 08 $1,386 −$2 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 08 $1,376 −$2 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 07 $1,325 −$2 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 07 $1,376 −$2 -0%
Will Croatia win Eurovision 2026? May 06 $2,526 −$4 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? May 05 $2,553 −$3 -0%
Will Daniel Mercuri win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 02 $1,263 −$2 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 30 $1,257 −$2 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 27 $3,579 −$4 -0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 21 $3,005 −$2 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 17 $2,460 −$2 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 16 $1,212 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $6,632 −$7 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $3,574 −$4 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 11 $1,228 −$1 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 09 $1,984 −$2 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 06 $2,383 −$2 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 05 $725 −$1 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 04 $897 −$1 -0%
Based FDV above $800M one day after launch? Apr 01 $65 $0 +0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 31 $1,912 −$2 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on March 30? Mar 31 $70 $0 +0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 30 $1,881 −$2 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 29 $2,379 −$2 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 29 $2,716 −$3 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 29 $863 −$1 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 29 $733 −$1 -0%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 28 $996 $0 -0%
Will Denmark win on 2026-03-26? Mar 27 $98 +$28 +28%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 26 $2,519 −$4 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $433 1h
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $434 3h
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $436 5h
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $436 7h
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $537 2d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $689 4d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $690 5d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $919 5d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $920 5d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $910 5d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $911 6d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $907 6d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $908 6d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $848 6d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $849 6d
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $754 11d
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $755 12d
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $824 12d
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $826 12d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $662 13d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $663 13d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $880 14d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $881 15d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $984 15d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $986 15d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $910 15d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $912 15d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $918 15d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $920 16d
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $720 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $538.84 · official $538.84 (match) · 360 history records