Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:07:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score

DB 0xdb72…aa19 tech 9 markets active 2d ago coverage 14d ⚠

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample⚠ Covers last 13d only

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died

Total PnL −$1,126 (-43%) realized −$1,346 · open +$220

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -46% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -51% what you keep after slip

Net edge-51%after slip

Net WR22%break-even

Win rate22%2W / 7L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$294per market

Trades / day1.7pace

Kalshi-fit56%portable

Net worth$564now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$70

7 days+$70

14 days+$70

30 days−$181

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +22%

net ROI/market (all)-51.2%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	8	-39.3%	-45.1%	25%	25%	-6.4%
≤30d	9	-46.1%	-51.2%	22%	22%	-16.6%
≤90d	9	-46.1%	-51.2%	22%	22%	-16.6%
all	9	-46.1%	-51.2%	22%	22%	-16.6%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover1.7 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-51.2%	22%	-16.6%
10%	-55.9%	11%	-24.6%
15%	-60.1%	11%	-31.9%
20%	-64.0%	0%	-38.5%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 86% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -46% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$183 vs −$78 · ×2.35 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×0.67 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage

Net worth$564

Realized−$1,346

Unrealized+$220

Win rate (resolved)22%

Wins / losses2 / 7

Open positions3

Markets (closed)9 / 9

History coverage14d ⚠

Avg bet$294

Trades / day1.7

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 3 History 9 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30?	Yes	19¢	35¢	$144	$270	+$127 (+88%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.5T by June 30?	Yes	9¢	17¢	$100	$176	+$76 (+76%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by June 30?	Yes	5¢	6¢	$100	$118	+$18 (+18%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Ethereum Up or Down - April 5, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET	Jun 17	$10	−$10	-100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 5, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET	Jun 17	$10	−$10	-100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 5, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET	Jun 17	$10	−$10	-100%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30?	Jun 16	$730	+$314	+43%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 15	$257	−$96	-37%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 15	$257	+$53	+20%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 15	$257	−$42	-16%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 15	$525	−$129	-25%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	Jun 02	$261	−$251	-96%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30?	BUY Yes	19¢	$45	36h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30?	BUY Yes	72¢	$506	36h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by June 30?	BUY Yes	5¢	$104	36h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.5T by June 30?	BUY Yes	9¢	$104	36h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30?	BUY Yes	18¢	$103	36h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30?	BUY Yes	65¢	$203	36h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30?	BUY Yes	59¢	$13	36h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30?	BUY Yes	57¢	$3	36h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30?	BUY Yes	56¢	$6	36h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	1¢	$162	36h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	2¢	$310	36h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	2¢	$216	36h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	1¢	$396	36h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	1¢	$62	6d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	1¢	$206	7d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	2¢	$257	7d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	2¢	$257	7d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	1¢	$257	7d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	1¢	$257	7d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	BUY Yes	1¢	$38	14d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	BUY Yes	1¢	$88	14d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	BUY Yes	1¢	$4	14d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	BUY Yes	1¢	$104	14d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	BUY Yes	0¢	$27	15d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $564.10 · official $564.10 (match) · 3500 history records