Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:37:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
DB 0xdb72…9ed4 sports 331 markets active 1h ago coverage 271d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$168 (+1%) realized +$178 · open −$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate97%320W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$92per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$215now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$13
7 days+$51
14 days+$70
30 days+$125
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 91% +$159
other 9% +$33
world 0% −$35
crypto 0% $0
tech 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-8.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +2.1% -7.6% 100% 0% -7.6%
≤30d 46 -0.7% -10.2% 98% 0% -8.2%
≤90d 146 +0.1% -9.5% 99% 0% -8.4%
all 330 +0.8% -8.8% 97% 2% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.8% 2% -9.0%
10% -17.5% 1% -17.7%
15% -25.5% 0% -25.7%
20% -32.8% 0% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
98% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$40 · ×0.04 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.4 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

271d coverage
Net worth$215
Realized+$178
Unrealized−$10
Win rate (resolved)97%
Wins / losses320 / 10
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions1
Markets (closed)330 / 331
History coverage271d
Avg bet$92
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 330 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? No 97¢ 93¢ $224 $215 −$10 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 17 $222 +$2 +1%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 17 $222 +$7 +3%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 16 $211 +$4 +2%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 14 $203 +$4 +2%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Jun 14 $205 +$6 +3%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 14 $199 +$4 +2%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Jun 13 $201 +$4 +2%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 13 $197 +$2 +1%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 13 $197 +$4 +2%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets Jun 11 $191 +$6 +3%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 11 $193 +$4 +2%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 10 $187 +$4 +2%
New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres Jun 09 $192 +$4 +2%
Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $5 −$5 -96%
Washington Nationals vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 07 $188 +$2 +1%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 07 $191 +$1 +1%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 07 $186 +$2 +1%
Athletics vs. Houston Astros Jun 07 $188 +$3 +2%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 06 $184 +$2 +1%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 06 $184 +$4 +2%
Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 04 $179 +$4 +2%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Houston Astros Jun 04 $182 +$2 +1%
San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 03 $178 +$2 +1%
Kansas City Royals vs. Texas Rangers Jun 03 $178 +$4 +2%
Boston Red Sox vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 01 $177 +$1 +1%
San Francisco Giants vs. Colorado Rockies May 31 $175 +$3 +2%
Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals May 31 $175 +$2 +1%
Detroit Tigers vs. Chicago White Sox May 30 $208 +$2 +1%
New York Yankees vs. Athletics May 30 $205 +$2 +1%
Minnesota Twins vs. Chicago White Sox May 30 $206 +$2 +1%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Detroit Tigers May 29 $203 +$2 +1%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles May 28 $204 +$2 +1%
Seattle Mariners vs. Athletics May 28 $201 +$2 +1%
Washington Nationals vs. Cleveland Guardians May 27 $202 +$2 +1%
New York Yankees vs. Kansas City Royals May 27 $199 +$2 +1%
Colorado Rockies vs. Arizona Diamondbacks May 27 $200 +$2 +1%
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Mets May 26 $196 +$3 +2%
Seattle Mariners vs. Kansas City Royals May 25 $194 +$2 +1%
Chicago White Sox vs. San Francisco Giants May 24 $198 +$2 +1%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Milwaukee Brewers May 23 $192 +$2 +1%
New York Mets vs. Washington Nationals May 23 $195 +$2 +1%
Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins May 21 $190 +$2 +1%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay Rays May 21 $191 +$4 +2%
Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins May 20 $188 +$2 +1%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay Rays May 19 $190 +$2 +1%
San Diego Padres vs. Seattle Mariners May 19 $185 +$3 +2%
Boston Red Sox vs. Atlanta Braves May 18 $188 +$2 +1%
Miami Marlins vs. Tampa Bay Rays May 18 $181 +$4 +2%
San Francisco Giants vs. Athletics May 17 $182 +$5 +3%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Los Angeles Angels May 16 $179 +$2 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 97¢ $224 1h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 97¢ $222 4h
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees BUY New York Yankees 99¢ $222 5h
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Cincinnati Reds 98¢ $211 29h
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants BUY San Francisco Giants 98¢ $203 2d
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 97¢ $205 2d
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants BUY Chicago Cubs 98¢ $199 3d
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals BUY Seattle Mariners 98¢ $201 4d
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY Baltimore Orioles 99¢ $197 4d
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Philadelphia Phillies 98¢ $197 6d
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets BUY St. Louis Cardinals 97¢ $191 6d
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Los Angeles Angels 98¢ $193 7d
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies BUY Colorado Rockies 98¢ $187 7d
Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $3 8d
Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $3 8d
New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres BUY New York Mets 98¢ $192 9d
Washington Nationals vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 99¢ $72 9d
Washington Nationals vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 99¢ $21 9d
Washington Nationals vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 99¢ $25 9d
Washington Nationals vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 99¢ $70 9d
Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 99¢ $191 10d
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Colorado Rockies BUY Milwaukee Brewers 99¢ $186 10d
Athletics vs. Houston Astros BUY Houston Astros 98¢ $188 11d
Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Baltimore Orioles 99¢ $125 11d
Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Baltimore Orioles 98¢ $59 11d
Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Baltimore Orioles 98¢ $184 12d
Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Los Angeles Angels 97¢ $179 13d
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Houston Astros BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 99¢ $182 14d
San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Milwaukee Brewers 99¢ $166 14d
San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Milwaukee Brewers 98¢ $5 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $214.60 · official $214.60 (match) · 790 history records