Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T09:02:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DB 0xdb71…82c7 crypto 91 markets active 1h ago coverage 27d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$26 (-4%) realized −$22 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate46%38W / 45L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day7.9pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$249now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$11
7 days−$9
14 days−$9
30 days−$40
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 47% −$30
other 46% −$12
sports 7% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-17.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -13.6% -21.8% 50% 50% -32.1%
≤30d 83 -8.6% -17.3% 46% 46% -21.6%
≤90d 83 -8.6% -17.3% 46% 46% -21.6%
all 83 -8.6% -17.3% 46% 46% -21.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.3% 46% -21.6%
10% -25.2% 41% -29.1%
15% -32.4% 36% -35.9%
20% -39.1% 28% -42.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.83 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

27d coverage
Net worth$249
Realized−$22
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses38 / 45
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions6
Markets (closed)83 / 91
History coverage27d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day7.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 83 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Yes 69¢ 68¢ $226 $225 −$2 (-1%)
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-7%)
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $6 $5 −$0 (-8%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-19%)
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? No 91¢ 92¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 29 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1 +$1 +101%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $10 +$9 +93%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $11 −$1 -9%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 17 $5 +$1 +24%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET May 27 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET May 27 $1 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET May 27 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET May 27 $2 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET May 26 $3 −$2 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET May 26 $1 +$1 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET May 26 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET May 26 $3 +$2 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET May 26 $4 −$3 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET May 26 $5 $0 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET May 26 $5 +$1 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET May 26 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET May 26 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET May 26 $8 −$2 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET May 25 $1 +$1 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET May 25 $2 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET May 25 $12 −$11 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET May 25 $5 −$1 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET May 25 $6 +$2 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET May 25 $4 −$1 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET May 25 $9 +$7 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET May 25 $2 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET May 25 $3 +$3 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET May 25 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET May 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET May 24 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET May 24 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET May 23 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET May 23 $1 +$1 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET May 23 $2 +$3 +149%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET May 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET May 22 $2 $0 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET May 22 $2 +$1 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET May 22 $3 +$2 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET May 22 $1 +$3 +244%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET May 22 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET May 22 $1 $0 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET May 22 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET May 22 $1 +$2 +190%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET May 22 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET May 22 $1 −$1 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET May 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET May 22 $1 +$1 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET May 22 $3 −$3 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $101 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $104 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $23 2h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 49¢ $1 12h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 51¢ $10 12h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 11¢ $1 14h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) SELL DR Congo 87¢ $12 14h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 72¢ $10 14h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 14h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 14h
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $10 14h
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 14h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals SELL No 65¢ $6 15h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY No 51¢ $5 15h
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? BUY No 91¢ $1 19h
Spread: France (-2.5) AND Spread: Argentina (-2.5) AND Spread: Norway BUY 42¢ $2 2d
Spread: France (-2.5) AND Spread: Norway (-2.5) BUY 54¢ $5 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 64¢ $10 2d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 2d
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 60¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 17¢ $1 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET SELL Up 76¢ $1 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET SELL Down 96¢ $1 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $1 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $1 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $2 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $2 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $1 22d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $1 22d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $249.44 · official $249.44 (match) · 244 history records