Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T18:05:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
DB 0xdb70…73e5 other 36 markets active 1h ago coverage 5d
RISKYcopy with care Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$17 (+29%) realized +$17 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +47% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +23% what you keep after slip
Net edge+23%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate21%4W / 15L
Drawdown45%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day9.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit39%portable
Net worth$31now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 72% +$7
sports 25% +$10
world 2% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)+33.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 +47.4% +33.3% 21% 21% +45.4%
≤30d 19 +47.4% +33.3% 21% 21% +45.4%
≤90d 19 +47.4% +33.3% 21% 21% +45.4%
all 19 +47.4% +33.3% 21% 21% +45.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +33.3% 21% +45.4%
10% +20.6% 21% +31.5%
15% +8.9% 21% +18.8%
20% -1.7% 21% +7.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 70% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +61% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +47% · $-wt +61% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -60% → late +144% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$1 · ×7.25 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.93 per $1 lost it wins $1.93
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$31
Realized+$17
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses4 / 15
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions17
Markets (closed)19 / 36
History coverage5d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day9.0
Drawdown45%
Kalshi-fit39%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 17 History 19 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-2%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Yes 22¢ 24¢ $3 $4 +$0 (+11%)
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-5%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ $2 $3 +$0 (+8%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 19¢ 18¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-3%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Yes 46¢ 46¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Yes 70¢ 68¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-3%)
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-5%)
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Yes 13¢ 14¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+4%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 61¢ 62¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Yes 45¢ 46¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Yes 61¢ 64¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 66¢ 66¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Saudi Arabia to score first vs. Uruguay? Jun 16 $1 +$3 +307%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 +$15 +1418%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Neither team to score first? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 +$8 +414%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -99%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Neither team to score first? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Qatar to score first vs. Switzerland? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Paraguay to score first vs. United States? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
United States vs. Paraguay: Neither team to score first? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $4 +$7 +165%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 11 $1 $0 -4%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Neither team to score first? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 58m
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 1h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 6h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 46¢ $2 6h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 6h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 45¢ $1 6h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 6h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 29¢ $3 6h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes $1 6h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 10h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 10h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $2 10h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $1 10h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 54¢ $1 23h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 23h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 24h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $16 24h
Saudi Arabia to score first vs. Uruguay? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 36h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $1 36h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes $1 36h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Neither team to score first? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 47h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes $1 2d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes $2 2d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 19¢ $2 4d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $1 4d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 4d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 53¢ $1 4d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 4d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 4d
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Neither team to score first? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $31.05 · official $31.06 (match) · 51 history records