Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T02:20:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
DB 0xdb70…977a other 101 markets active 1h ago coverage 117d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$10 (-0%) realized −$10 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate9%9W / 91L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$164per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$35now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 53% −$10
politics 25% −$6
sports 11% +$5
economics 5% −$1
tech 3% $0
crypto 3% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-15.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 82 -1.6% -10.9% 7% 6% -9.6%
all 100 -6.5% -15.4% 9% 8% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.4% 8% -9.6%
10% -23.5% 7% -18.2%
15% -30.9% 5% -26.1%
20% -37.6% 3% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$1 · ×8.93 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

117d coverage
Net worth$35
Realized−$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)9%
Wins / losses9 / 91
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)100 / 101
History coverage117d
Avg bet$164
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 100 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 99¢ 99¢ $35 $35 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 09 $198 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 23 $410 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 14 $182 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? May 06 $176 $0 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 05 $170 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 05 $196 $0 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? May 05 $200 $0 -0%
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 05 $218 $0 -0%
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 04 $526 −$1 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 03 $186 $0 -0%
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? May 02 $202 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? May 02 $191 $0 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? May 01 $201 $0 -0%
Will Seo Young-kyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 01 $196 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 30 $219 $0 -0%
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 29 $309 $0 -0%
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 29 $203 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Apr 22 $208 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 22 $162 $0 -0%
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 21 $38 $0 -0%
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 La Liga? Apr 20 $38 $0 +0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $149 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $154 $0 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? Apr 19 $156 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $283 $0 -0%
Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 18 $121 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 18 $120 $0 -0%
Will Scott Bessent be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 17 $303 $0 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 16 $140 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,800 in April? Apr 16 $143 $0 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 16 $126 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me Apr 15 $115 $0 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 15 $125 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win Eurovision 2026? Apr 14 $150 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 14 $123 $0 -0%
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 13 $138 $0 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 13 $129 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 13 $139 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 12 $150 $0 -0%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 12 $113 $0 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 10 $313 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on Apr 08 $149 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on April Apr 08 $115 $0 -0%
Will Cho Eun-hee win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 08 $336 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 08 $157 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 07 $168 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 07 $161 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 07 $171 $0 -0%
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 07 $308 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in April? Apr 06 $133 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $35 1h
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $37 12d
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $37 15d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $180 29d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $180 30d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $182 38d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $182 46d
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 100¢ $176 46d
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $176 47d
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $170 47d
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $170 47d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $196 47d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $196 47d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $200 47d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $200 47d
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $218 48d
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $218 48d
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $168 48d
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $168 48d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $186 49d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $186 49d
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 99¢ $202 50d
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 99¢ $202 50d
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $191 50d
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $191 51d
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $201 51d
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $201 51d
Will Seo Young-kyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election SELL No 100¢ $196 51d
Will Seo Young-kyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY No 100¢ $196 52d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $219 52d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $34.98 · official $34.98 (match) · 276 history records