Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T01:10:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DB 0xdb70…52c0 sports 520 markets active 0h ago coverage 42d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$2,114 (-10%) realized −$2,197 · open +$83
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate57%285W / 216L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$41per market
Trades / day15.6pace
Fees−$204est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$1,348now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2,370
7 days−$2,111
14 days−$2,044
30 days−$2,331
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 89% −$2,083
other 9% +$16
crypto 2% −$306
world 0% −$13
finance 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)-8.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 101 -4.1% -13.2% 57% 54% -27.6%
≤30d 325 -0.9% -10.4% 56% 55% -20.8%
≤90d 501 +1.3% -8.4% 57% 56% -20.9%
all 501 +1.3% -8.4% 57% 56% -20.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.4% 56% -20.9%
10% -17.1% 55% -28.4%
15% -25.1% 52% -35.4%
20% -32.5% 40% -41.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$38 · ×0.53 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

42d coverage
Net worth$1,348
Realized−$2,197
Unrealized+$83
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses285 / 216
Est. fees paid−$204
Open positions19
Markets (closed)501 / 520
History coverage42d
Avg bet$41
Trades / day15.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 19 History 501 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $200 $183 −$17 (-9%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ $100 $115 +$15 (+15%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $100 $115 +$15 (+15%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Yes 63¢ 64¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $50 $83 +$33 (+66%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 13¢ $100 $78 −$22 (-22%)
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Washington Nationals 56¢ 97¢ $35 $61 +$26 (+73%)
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 7.5 Under 58¢ 88¢ $40 $60 +$20 (+51%)
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 6.5 Under 56¢ 79¢ $40 $56 +$16 (+41%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $50 $55 +$5 (+11%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $50 $55 +$5 (+10%)
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Under 57¢ 56¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-1%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $50 $46 −$4 (-8%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $50 $43 −$7 (-14%)
Asuncion 2: Joaquin Aguilar vs Gustavo Almeida Gustavo Almeida 59¢ 54¢ $40 $36 −$4 (-9%)
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Atlanta Braves 51¢ 54¢ $30 $32 +$2 (+6%)
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees New York Yankees 51¢ 52¢ $30 $31 +$1 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Asuncion 2: Gonzalo Villanueva vs Juan Bautista Torres Jun 17 $347 −$45 -13%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $61 −$60 -99%
HSBC Championships: Cameron Norrie vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Parma: Pedro Martinez vs Daniel Rincon Jun 16 $35 −$35 -100%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $101 −$101 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $101 +$48 +48%
Brescia: Carole Monnet vs Martina Trevisan Jun 16 $50 +$19 +38%
Dublin: Oliver Crawford vs Daniil Glinka Jun 16 $237 +$7 +3%
Parma: Jesper de Jong vs Laslo Djere Jun 16 $136 +$62 +46%
Poznan: Genaro Alberto Olivieri vs Max Hans Rehberg Jun 16 $14 −$14 -100%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 11.5 Jun 16 $30 −$30 -100%
HSBC Championships: Ignacio Buse vs Marcos Giron Jun 16 $51 −$51 -100%
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 1 New Zealand? Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $101 −$101 -100%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $152 −$152 -100%
Figueira Da Foz: Katarina Kuzmova vs Viktoria Morvayova Jun 16 $50 +$21 +42%
Parma: Marco Cecchinato vs Carlo Alberto Caniato Jun 16 $35 +$23 +65%
Parma: Daniel Galan vs Zsombor Piros Jun 16 $186 +$14 +8%
Royan: Max Alcala Gurri vs Andres Santamarta Jun 16 $45 +$18 +40%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 16 $202 +$86 +43%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 9.5 Jun 16 $51 +$29 +58%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $225 +$189 +84%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 16 $30 +$23 +76%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $101 +$57 +56%
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Francesca Jones Jun 15 $51 +$29 +57%
Figueira Da Foz: Sachia Vickery vs Beatriz Haddad Maia Jun 15 $41 +$28 +70%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $35 −$23 -66%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Diane Parry vs Ella Seidel Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Maria Timofeeva vs Renata Za Jun 15 $30 −$30 -100%
Set Handicap: Parry (-1.5) vs Seidel (+1.5) Jun 15 $40 −$40 -100%
Nottingham Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Maria Sakkari Jun 15 $45 −$45 -100%
Grass Court Championships: Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Anastasia Potapova Jun 15 $41 +$34 +83%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Katerina Siniakova vs Yue Yu Jun 15 $56 +$28 +50%
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Tereza Valentova Jun 15 $66 +$24 +36%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Lin Zhu vs Sinja Kraus Jun 15 $19 +$11 +57%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Suzan Lamens vs Dalma Galfi Jun 15 $71 +$29 +42%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$9 +93%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $101 −$101 -100%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $101 −$101 -100%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $202 −$202 -100%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $2,113 −$2,113 -100%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 15 $50 +$24 +48%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 6.5 Jun 15 $30 +$24 +80%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $202 +$87 +43%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $305 −$305 -100%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $36 +$89 +249%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Jun 14 $252 −$205 -81%
HSBC Championships: Donna Vekic vs Emma Raducanu Jun 14 $704 +$154 +22%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Katie Volynets vs Kimberly Birrell Jun 14 $35 −$35 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 57¢ $51 3m
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 63¢ $101 4m
Asuncion 2: Gonzalo Villanueva vs Juan Bautista Torres SELL Gonzalo Villanueva 99¢ $349 55m
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 58¢ $41 55m
Asuncion 2: Gonzalo Villanueva vs Juan Bautista Torres BUY Gonzalo Villanueva 85¢ $301 1h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 59¢ $61 1h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 56¢ $41 1h
Asuncion 2: Gonzalo Villanueva vs Juan Bautista Torres BUY Juan Bautista Torres 55¢ $10 1h
Asuncion 2: Gonzalo Villanueva vs Juan Bautista Torres BUY Juan Bautista Torres 63¢ $35 1h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 56¢ $35 1h
Asuncion 2: Joaquin Aguilar vs Gustavo Almeida BUY Gustavo Almeida 59¢ $40 2h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 64¢ $101 5h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $101 7h
Brescia: Carole Monnet vs Martina Trevisan BUY Carole Monnet 72¢ $50 7h
HSBC Championships: Cameron Norrie vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina BUY Cameron Norrie 56¢ $10 7h
Dublin: Oliver Crawford vs Daniil Glinka SELL Oliver Crawford 100¢ $175 8h
Parma: Jesper de Jong vs Laslo Djere SELL Laslo Djere 100¢ $199 8h
Dublin: Oliver Crawford vs Daniil Glinka BUY Oliver Crawford 57¢ $101 9h
Dublin: Oliver Crawford vs Daniil Glinka SELL Daniil Glinka 42¢ $54 9h
Parma: Jesper de Jong vs Laslo Djere BUY Laslo Djere 74¢ $101 9h
Dublin: Oliver Crawford vs Daniil Glinka BUY Daniil Glinka 76¢ $101 9h
Dublin: Oliver Crawford vs Daniil Glinka SELL Oliver Crawford 24¢ $15 9h
Dublin: Oliver Crawford vs Daniil Glinka BUY Oliver Crawford 55¢ $35 9h
Parma: Jesper de Jong vs Laslo Djere BUY Laslo Djere 55¢ $35 9h
Parma: Pedro Martinez vs Daniel Rincon BUY Pedro Martinez 58¢ $35 10h
HSBC Championships: Ignacio Buse vs Marcos Giron BUY Marcos Giron 58¢ $51 12h
Figueira Da Foz: Katarina Kuzmova vs Viktoria Morvayova BUY Katarina Kuzmova 70¢ $50 12h
Poznan: Genaro Alberto Olivieri vs Max Hans Rehberg BUY Max Hans Rehberg 64¢ $14 12h
Parma: Daniel Galan vs Zsombor Piros SELL Zsombor Piros $3 14h
Parma: Daniel Galan vs Zsombor Piros BUY Daniel Galan 76¢ $151 15h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,347.52 · official $1,355.32 (match) · 1141 history records