Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T21:10:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
DB 0xdb70…010b sports 11 markets active 0h ago coverage 4d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$4 (+31%) realized +$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +54% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +34% what you keep after slip
Net edge+34%after slip
Net WR67%break-even
Win rate67%6W / 3L
Drawdown44%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day4.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit55%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 61% −$1
other 39% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)+39.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +54.5% +39.8% 67% 67% +31.6%
≤30d 9 +54.5% +39.8% 67% 67% +31.6%
≤90d 9 +54.5% +39.8% 67% 67% +31.6%
all 9 +54.5% +39.8% 67% 67% +31.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +39.8% 67% +31.6%
10% +26.4% 67% +19.0%
15% +14.2% 67% +7.5%
20% +3.0% 67% -3.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 47% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +46% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +54% · $-wt +46% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.31 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.63 per $1 lost it wins $2.63
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses6 / 3
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)9 / 11
History coverage4d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day4.5
Drawdown44%
Kalshi-fit55%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 9 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 +$1 +103%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $2 −$1 -41%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +57%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 +$2 +194%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +124%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1 +$1 +106%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $1 +$2 +148%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 20 history records