Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T02:46:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
DB 0xdb6a…3419 crypto 33 markets active 1h ago coverage 177d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ Wins small, loses big
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)! loses its big bets
Total PnL −$24 (-0%) realized −$24 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate68%21W / 10L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$843per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$200now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 46% −$13
other 25% −$7
economics 15% −$4
world 5% −$1
tech 5% −$1
crypto 4% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 5 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 31 +0.3% -9.3% 68% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.0% 0% -18.3%
15% -25.9% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 66% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,330) wins small, loses big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$3 · ×0.05 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.1 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

177d coverage
Net worth$200
Realized−$24
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses21 / 10
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions2
Markets (closed)31 / 33
History coverage177d
Avg bet$843
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 31 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 17? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $35 $35 +$0 (+0%)
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $26 $26 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on May 25? May 25 $36 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 20? May 20 $51 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $0.20 in May? May 18 $52 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.20 in March? May 18 $59 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on March 17? Mar 27 $58 $0 +0%
Will the Sacramento Kings win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 16 $32 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Mar 05 $10 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Mar 05 $118 +$1 +1%
Will XRP reach $3.00 in February? Mar 05 $160 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on February 10? Feb 20 $26 $0 +0%
Will PSV win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 10 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on January 28? Feb 10 $40 $0 +0%
Will Tomas Machac win the 2026 Australian Open? Jan 19 $5,600 −$6 -0%
Will Mgladbach win the 2025–26 Bundesliga? Jan 19 $5,614 −$6 -0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 11 $2,960 −$3 -0%
Will Eintracht Frankfurt win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 11 $2,938 −$3 -0%
Will Bournemouth win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 11 $2,960 −$3 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $98,000 on January 8? Jan 11 $37 $0 +0%
Will Base launch a token in 2025? Jan 11 $38 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,400 on January 1? Jan 11 $39 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $7,000 by December 31? Jan 11 $50 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,300 on December 30? Jan 01 $35 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on December 29? Dec 29 $68 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on December 27? Dec 28 $38 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on December 25? Dec 26 $50 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on December 24? Dec 24 $50 $0 +0%
Will Trump nominate Lorie K. Logan as the next Fed chair? Dec 23 $1,313 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Bulls win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 22 $1,331 −$1 -0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on De Dec 22 $1,314 −$1 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Dec 22 $1,330 −$1 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 22 $1,337 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $35 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on May 25? BUY No 100¢ $36 23d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 20? BUY Yes 100¢ $51 28d
Will XRP dip to $0.20 in May? BUY No 100¢ $52 30d
Will XRP reach $3.20 in March? BUY No 100¢ $59 81d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on March 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $58 92d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $10 104d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $21 104d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $8 104d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $88 104d
Will XRP reach $3.00 in February? BUY No 100¢ $160 110d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on February 10? BUY No 100¢ $26 127d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on January 28? BUY Yes 100¢ $40 140d
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $26 140d
Will the Sacramento Kings win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $32 140d
Will PSV win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 100¢ $30 140d
Will Tomas Machac win the 2026 Australian Open? SELL No 100¢ $5,594 148d
Will Tomas Machac win the 2026 Australian Open? BUY No 100¢ $5,600 148d
Will Mgladbach win the 2025–26 Bundesliga? SELL No 100¢ $5,608 148d
Will Mgladbach win the 2025–26 Bundesliga? BUY No 100¢ $5,614 148d
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? SELL No 100¢ $2,957 157d
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? BUY No 100¢ $2,960 157d
Will Eintracht Frankfurt win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 100¢ $2,935 157d
Will Eintracht Frankfurt win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 100¢ $2,938 157d
Will Bournemouth win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL No 100¢ $2,957 157d
Will Bournemouth win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY No 100¢ $2,960 157d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $98,000 on January 8? BUY No 100¢ $37 160d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,400 on January 1? BUY No 100¢ $39 167d
Will Ethereum hit $7,000 by December 31? BUY No 100¢ $50 169d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,300 on December 30? BUY No 100¢ $35 169d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $200.06 · official $200.06 (match) · 207 history records