Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T16:12:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

DB 0xdb68…4ef3 sports 5 markets active 2h ago coverage 6d

RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge

Total PnL +$4,461 (+90%) realized +$4,492 · open −$31

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +100% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +64% what you keep after slip

Net edge+64%after slip

Net WR100%break-even

Win rate100%2W / 0L

Drawdown0%max

Avg bet$990per market

Trades / day0.9pace

Fees−$71est.

Kalshi-fit60%portable

Net worth$453now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +100%

net ROI/market (all)+80.8%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	2	+99.8%	+80.8%	100%	100%	+80.1%
≤30d	2	+99.8%	+80.8%	100%	100%	+80.1%
≤90d	2	+99.8%	+80.8%	100%	100%	+80.1%
all	2	+99.8%	+80.8%	100%	100%	+80.1%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.9 tr/day

realistic slip~10%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	+80.8%	100%	+80.1%
10% ← realistic here	+63.5%	100%	+62.9%
15%	+47.7%	100%	+47.2%
20%	+33.2%	100%	+32.7%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 52% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +99% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +100% · $-wt +99% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$2,207 vs — no data

Profit factor

— no data

Copy size

≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage

Net worth$453

Realized+$4,492

Unrealized−$31

Win rate (resolved)100%

Wins / losses2 / 0

Est. fees paid−$71

Open positions3

Markets (closed)2 / 5

History coverage6d

Avg bet$990

Trades / day0.9

Drawdown0%

Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 3 History 2 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw?	Yes	29¢	28¢	$194	$190	−$3 (-2%)
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19?	Yes	18¢	16¢	$193	$166	−$27 (-14%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	No	42¢	42¢	$97	$96	−$1 (-1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP?	Jun 14	$1,980	+$2,107	+106%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5)	Jun 14	$2,475	+$2,308	+93%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	BUY No	42¢	$99	1h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw?	BUY Yes	29¢	$198	14h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	18¢	$198	14h
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP?	BUY Yes	48¢	$1,980	5d
Spread: Spurs (-5.5)	BUY Knicks	51¢	$2,475	5d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $453.00 · official $453.07 (match) · 7 history records