Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T09:05:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DB 0xdb67…4fd6 world 35 markets active 1h ago coverage 480d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$3 (+0%) realized +$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate41%14W / 20L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$30now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 51% −$1
other 27% +$2
culture 8% −$12
tech 6% −$4
sports 3% +$22
weather 3% −$4
politics 2% $0
economics 0% −$1
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-7.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.4% -9.9% 0% 0% -9.9%
≤30d 13 -0.5% -9.9% 15% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 13 -0.5% -9.9% 15% 0% -9.9%
all 34 +2.2% -7.5% 41% 6% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.5% 6% -9.2%
10% -16.4% 6% -17.9%
15% -24.5% 6% -25.9%
20% -31.9% 6% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 91% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
86% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×0.79 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.11 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

480d coverage
Net worth$30
Realized+$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses14 / 20
Open positions1
Markets (closed)34 / 35
History coverage480d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 34 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? No 96¢ 96¢ $28 $28 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $35 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 16 $41 $0 -1%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $4 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $56 $0 -0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $28 $0 +1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 08 $18 −$1 -5%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 07 $29 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 06 $29 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $16 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 06 $29 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 05 $32 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $29 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 04 $32 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $108K on June 20? Jun 21 $2 $0 +2%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 03 $2 $0 +1%
Will Elena Lasconi win the Romanian presidential election? May 20 $2 $0 +1%
Will Mario Grech be the next pope? May 10 $2 $0 +1%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after May 2025 meeting? May 10 $2 $0 +2%
Will Elon tweet 300-324 times March 14-21? Mar 21 $60 $0 +1%
No change in Fed interest rates after March 2025 meeting? Mar 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the Eastern Conference? Mar 20 $61 $0 +0%
Will 'Novocaine' gross more than 11m on opening weekend? Mar 19 $61 +$1 +1%
Will the CDU/CSU win less than 20% of the vote in the German election? Mar 15 $18 $0 +1%
2025 February hottest on record? Mar 15 $43 $0 +1%
Illinois vs. Michigan Mar 03 $7 +$11 +144%
Will "Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat" win Best Documentary Feature Film a Mar 02 $7 $0 +0%
Will Taylor Swift attend the Oscars? Mar 02 $7 $0 +0%
Will "The Journey" win Best Original Song at the 2025 Oscars? Mar 02 $8 −$1 -9%
Texas Southern vs. Alcorn State Mar 02 $8 $0 +0%
Will "Mi Camino" win Best Original Song at the 2025 Oscars? Mar 02 $19 −$11 -58%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 32-33°F on March 2? Mar 02 $22 −$4 -16%
Will Elon Musk attend the Oscars? Mar 02 $23 $0 +0%
Nets vs. Wizards Mar 02 $10 +$12 +117%
Will the chopsticks catch SpaceX Starship Flight Test 8 Superheavy? Mar 02 $47 −$4 -8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $25 1h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $26 5h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $26 5h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $25 14h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $28 16h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 11¢ $1 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 11¢ $2 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 11¢ $0 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 10¢ $3 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $9 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $9 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $4 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $21 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $6 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $27 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 16¢ $10 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 16¢ $2 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 17¢ $13 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $12 8d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $16 8d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $15 8d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $13 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 76¢ $25 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 76¢ $25 8d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $28 8d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $28 8d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 19¢ $7 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29.85 · official $29.85 (match) · 103 history records