Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T13:03:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DB 0xdb65…2350 crypto 45 markets active 2h ago coverage 359d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$5,277 (-23%) realized −$5,279 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate98%41W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$513per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$452now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 87% −$5,339
crypto 5% +$11
other 4% +$46
finance 3% +$5
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 1 +0.6% -9.0% 100% 0% -9.0%
≤90d 4 +0.9% -8.7% 100% 0% -8.7%
all 42 -0.0% -9.6% 98% 7% -30.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 7% -30.6%
10% -18.2% 2% -37.3%
15% -26.1% 2% -43.3%
20% -33.4% 0% -48.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 89% · top 2 96% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% too few recent
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -23% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$38 vs −$6,826 · ×0.01 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.23 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

359d coverage
Net worth$452
Realized−$5,279
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)98%
Wins / losses41 / 1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)42 / 45
History coverage359d
Avg bet$513
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 42 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? No 99¢ 100¢ $298 $300 +$1 (+0%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $45 by end of June? No 99¢ 100¢ $99 $100 +$1 (+1%)
Will FURIA win MSI 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $53 $53 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April? May 31 $398 +$2 +1%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March? Apr 17 $200 +$2 +1%
EdgeX FDV above $2B one day after launch? Apr 17 $244 +$2 +1%
Ethereum all time high by March 31, 2026? Mar 31 $242 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin all time high by March 31, 2026? Mar 23 $198 +$2 +1%
Will XRP reach $4.00 in January? Feb 27 $8 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $6,000 in January? Feb 27 $10 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in January? Feb 27 $11 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $30 in January? Feb 27 $20 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $17,000 by December 31? Jan 11 $10 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $580 before 2026? Jan 11 $10 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 11 $20 $0 +0%
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2025? Jan 11 $90 $0 +0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after December 2025 meeting? Dec 15 $10 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in November? Dec 15 $10 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $5,400 in November? Dec 15 $10 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 in November? Dec 15 $10 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $5,600 in November? Dec 15 $10 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $7,000 in November? Dec 15 $10 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $6.00 in November? Dec 15 $10 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $270 in November? Dec 15 $10 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 in November? Dec 15 $10 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $135,000 in November? Dec 15 $10 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80k in October? Nov 27 $10 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $135k in October? Nov 27 $14 $0 +3%
Will Solana reach $270 in October? Nov 27 $15 $0 +3%
Will Bitcoin reach $130k in October? Nov 27 $16 +$1 +4%
Will Ethereum reach $8000 in October? Nov 27 $20 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200k in October? Nov 27 $20 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $350 in October? Nov 27 $20 $0 +1%
Will Solana reach $300 in October? Nov 27 $20 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70k in October? Nov 27 $20 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $5600 in October? Nov 27 $20 $0 +2%
Will Ethereum reach $5400 in October? Nov 27 $20 +$1 +3%
Will Ethereum reach $5200 in October? Nov 27 $20 +$1 +4%
Will Ethereum reach $6000 in October? Nov 27 $21 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $150k in October? Nov 27 $25 $0 +1%
Pump.fun market cap (FDV) >$8B one day after launch? Oct 19 $391 +$43 +11%
MSI Playoffs: Bilibili Gaming vs. FlyQuest Jul 09 $281 +$109 +39%
Will McLaren have the highest constructor score at the 2025 F1 British Jul 08 $281 +$1 +0%
MSI Playoffs: T1 vs. Flying Oyster Jul 04 $7,174 −$6,826 -95%
MSI Playoffs: Movistar KOI vs. Bilibili Gaming Jul 04 $12,679 +$1,378 +11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will FURIA win MSI 2026? BUY No 100¢ $53 1h
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $42 26d
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $50 26d
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $202 26d
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $1 26d
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $3 26d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $45 by end of June? BUY No 99¢ $99 26d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April? BUY No 99¢ $398 70d
EdgeX FDV above $2B one day after launch? BUY No 99¢ $244 88d
Ethereum all time high by March 31, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $244 88d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March? BUY No 99¢ $3 96d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March? BUY No 99¢ $21 96d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March? BUY No 99¢ $175 96d
Bitcoin all time high by March 31, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $200 96d
Ethereum all time high by March 31, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $242 120d
Bitcoin all time high by March 31, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $198 120d
Will Solana dip to $30 in January? BUY No 100¢ $20 166d
Will XRP reach $4.00 in January? BUY No 99¢ $8 166d
Will Ethereum reach $6,000 in January? BUY No 100¢ $10 166d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in January? BUY No 100¢ $11 166d
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2025? BUY No 100¢ $90 181d
Will Solana reach $580 before 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10 193d
Will Ethereum hit $17,000 by December 31? BUY No 100¢ $10 194d
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? BUY No 100¢ $20 194d
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in November? BUY No 100¢ $10 209d
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after December 2025 meeting? BUY No 100¢ $10 212d
Will XRP reach $6.00 in November? BUY No 100¢ $10 212d
Will Solana reach $270 in November? BUY No 100¢ $10 212d
Will Ethereum reach $5,400 in November? BUY No 100¢ $10 212d
Will Ethereum reach $5,600 in November? BUY No 100¢ $10 212d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $452.21 · official $452.21 (match) · 123 history records