Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T18:03:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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DB 0xdb64…f38b crypto 25 markets active 0h ago coverage 12d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$15 (+8%) realized −$2 · open +$17
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate50%10W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day5.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$69now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$42
7 days−$39
14 days−$45
30 days−$45
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 51% −$42
sports 23% +$18
other 14% +$2
tech 8% −$6
world 5% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-23.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -11.4% -19.8% 53% 47% -41.2%
≤30d 20 -15.0% -23.1% 50% 35% -37.7%
≤90d 20 -15.0% -23.1% 50% 35% -37.7%
all 20 -15.0% -23.1% 50% 35% -37.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.1% 35% -37.7%
10% -30.4% 20% -43.6%
15% -37.2% 20% -49.1%
20% -43.3% 10% -54.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 57% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -31% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
30% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -31% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -37% → late +7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$7 · ×0.36 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.36 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$69
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$17
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses10 / 10
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions5
Markets (closed)20 / 25
History coverage12d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day5.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 20 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
T20 Series Ireland vs India: Ireland vs India Ireland 53¢ 100¢ $27 $50 +$23 (+87%)
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? Yes 80¢ 80¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-1%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Yes 58¢ 58¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+1%)
Will OpenAI have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $10 $4 −$6 (-62%)
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? Yes 20¢ 18¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 26 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 26 $2 +$7 +312%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 26 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 26 $10 +$8 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 26 $6 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 26 $5 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 26 $5 +$2 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 26 $37 −$37 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 26 $5 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $10 +$5 +46%
Will SpaceX be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem Jun 18 $5 $0 +6%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 +$1 +8%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 −$1 -43%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Pakistan Jun 14 $6 −$6 -99%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $9 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $2 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $2 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $2 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $2 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $2 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $5 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $2 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $2 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $2 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $2 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $2 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $2 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $2 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET SELL Up 95¢ $7 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $2 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $2 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $2 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $2 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $5 1h
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $2 1h
T20 Series Ireland vs India: Ireland vs India BUY Ireland 40¢ $4 2h
T20 Series Ireland vs India: Ireland vs India BUY Ireland 50¢ $5 2h
T20 Series Ireland vs India: Ireland vs India BUY Ireland 57¢ $6 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $69.30 · official $69.30 (match) · 77 history records