Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T02:20:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DB 0xdb63…aa62 sports 45 markets active 1h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$60 (+3%) realized +$59 · open +$1
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate42%18W / 25L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$38per market
Trades / day7.3pace
Fees−$16est.
Kalshi-fit53%portable
Net worth$61now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$205
7 days−$5
14 days−$3
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 53% −$60
other 47% +$60
weather 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-11.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 40 -6.8% -15.7% 40% 40% -7.5%
≤30d 43 -1.7% -11.1% 42% 42% -7.4%
≤90d 43 -1.7% -11.1% 42% 42% -7.4%
all 43 -1.7% -11.1% 42% 42% -7.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.1% 42% -7.4%
10% -19.6% 42% -16.3%
15% -27.4% 42% -24.4%
20% -34.5% 33% -31.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late -12% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$42 vs −$30 · ×1.38 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$61
Realized+$59
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses18 / 25
Est. fees paid−$16
Open positions2
Markets (closed)43 / 45
History coverage7d
Avg bet$38
Trades / day7.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit53%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 43 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Yes 60¢ 62¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+2%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 21 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $50 −$50 -100%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 21 $71 −$70 -98%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $71 −$42 -59%
Japan leading at halftime? Jun 21 $51 +$44 +86%
Spread: Japan (-3.5) Jun 21 $20 +$85 +414%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 21 $51 +$37 +73%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $101 +$50 +50%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $41 +$32 +79%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $72 −$70 -98%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $70 +$44 +62%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $102 −$81 -79%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $102 −$100 -98%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $30 −$13 -44%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $30 −$20 -64%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $51 −$50 -99%
Spread: Brazil (-4.5) Jun 20 $25 −$25 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $101 +$63 +62%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: 2nd Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $10 +$8 +76%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $50 +$23 +46%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $21 −$1 -5%
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 0 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $15 −$15 -99%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $20 −$20 -99%
Harry Kane: 1+ goals Jun 17 $102 +$126 +124%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $46 −$45 -98%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals Jun 17 $20 −$20 -98%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $20 +$21 +105%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $30 +$14 +46%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 16 $51 −$50 -99%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals Jun 16 $10 +$42 +414%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $102 +$142 +140%
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will France be eliminated in the Final of the World Cup? Jun 16 $10 −$2 -22%
Cucurella: 2+ shots Jun 15 $3 +$4 +129%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $30 +$17 +55%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $30 −$30 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 16? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 +$3 +250%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $1 $0 +48%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 60¢ $51 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $50 7h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 44¢ $71 7h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia O/U 0.5 SELL Over 29¢ $27 9h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia O/U 0.5 BUY Over 37¢ $71 15h
Spread: Japan (-3.5) BUY Japan 19¢ $20 21h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Japan 57¢ $51 22h
Japan leading at halftime? BUY Yes 53¢ $51 22h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $41 30h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 66¢ $101 30h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $72 30h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes $19 33h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 61¢ $70 42h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 42¢ $102 42h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 21¢ $102 42h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 27¢ $17 45h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 17¢ $11 45h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 57¢ $51 46h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $30 47h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 46¢ $30 47h
Spread: Brazil (-4.5) BUY Brazil 51¢ $25 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $101 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY No $1 2d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: 2nd Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners BUY Under 56¢ $10 3d
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 0 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 33¢ $10 3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 35¢ $13 3d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 68¢ $50 3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 51¢ $20 3d
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Over 55¢ $15 3d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 52¢ $20 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $61.33 · official $61.33 (match) · 72 history records