Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T11:27:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
DB 0xdb62…7f78 crypto 30 markets active 1h ago coverage 110d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$236 (-7%) realized −$232 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate52%15W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$112per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$596now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$389
7 days+$389
14 days+$389
30 days+$389
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 64% −$437
other 36% +$172
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-19.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +33.9% +21.2% 73% 64% +28.9%
≤30d 11 +33.9% +21.2% 73% 64% +28.9%
≤90d 11 +33.9% +21.2% 73% 64% +28.9%
all 29 -11.5% -19.9% 52% 41% -18.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.9% 41% -18.1%
10% -27.6% 41% -25.9%
15% -34.6% 31% -33.1%
20% -41.0% 31% -39.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +42% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -40% → late +16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$62 vs −$85 · ×0.73 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

110d coverage
Net worth$596
Realized−$232
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses15 / 14
Open positions1
Markets (closed)29 / 30
History coverage110d
Avg bet$112
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 29 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Yes 68¢ 68¢ $600 $596 −$4 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 21 $10 +$1 +8%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $404 +$211 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 20 $5 +$6 +124%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $233 +$164 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 20 $5 +$1 +25%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $101 +$65 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 19 $25 +$8 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 19 $16 +$47 +297%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $102 −$100 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Mar 18 $187 −$186 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Mar 18 $176 +$11 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Mar 18 $100 +$53 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Mar 18 $100 −$98 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Mar 18 $122 −$122 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Mar 18 $58 +$64 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Mar 18 $50 −$49 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Mar 18 $78 −$77 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Mar 03 $54 −$54 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Mar 03 $41 +$14 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Mar 03 $100 −$98 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Mar 03 $100 −$99 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Mar 03 $79 −$79 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Mar 03 $100 +$7 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Mar 03 $107 −$107 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Mar 03 $200 +$172 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Mar 03 $100 +$98 +98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Mar 03 $100 −$99 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $5 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $606 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $5 14h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $404 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $5 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $5 29h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $233 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET SELL Up 100¢ $34 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $25 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $63 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $5 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $5 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $5 39h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $101 39h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $102 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $187 94d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $76 95d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $100 95d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $100 95d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $153 95d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $100 95d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $122 95d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET SELL Down 100¢ $122 95d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $58 95d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $50 95d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $78 95d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $54 109d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $595.59 · official $595.59 (match) · 53 history records