Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:06:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
DB 0xdb60…137a crypto 458 markets active 1h ago coverage 273d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$46,130 (-16%) realized −$46,175 · open +$45
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -34% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -47% what you keep after slip
Net edge-47%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate28%127W / 321L
Whale WR37%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$618per market
Trades / day10.3pace
Fees−$762est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$870now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$791
7 days+$466
14 days−$927
30 days−$1,619
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 62% −$44,476
sports 29% −$5,030
other 6% −$4,761
economics 2% −$3,021
tech 0% −$646
world 0% +$215
politics 0% −$405
finance 0% −$173
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-40.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 41 -27.6% -34.5% 41% 39% -5.3%
≤30d 61 -30.9% -37.5% 38% 34% -16.4%
≤90d 274 -47.1% -52.1% 25% 20% -43.0%
all 448 -33.8% -40.1% 28% 25% -31.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.3 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -40.1% 25% -31.4%
10% ← realistic here -45.8% 21% -37.9%
15% -51.1% 19% -43.9%
20% -55.9% 16% -49.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -38% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -34% · $-wt -24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 37% (≥$559) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -24% → late -43% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$411 vs −$344 · ×1.19 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.47 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

273d coverage
Net worth$870
Realized−$46,175
Unrealized+$45
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses127 / 321
Whale WR (big bets)37%
Est. fees paid−$762
Open positions10
Markets (closed)448 / 458
History coverage273d
Avg bet$618
Trades / day10.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 448 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $180 $190 +$10 (+5%)
Will Warsh say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during June Press Conference? Yes 25¢ 37¢ $100 $150 +$50 (+50%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 11¢ $100 $128 +$28 (+28%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 13¢ $120 $115 −$5 (-4%)
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Yes 30¢ 28¢ $100 $95 −$5 (-5%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 11¢ $70 $73 +$3 (+4%)
Will Warsh say "Jerome" or "Powell" during June Press Conference? Yes 55¢ 64¢ $50 $58 +$8 (+16%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $40 $37 −$3 (-9%)
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $40 $20 −$20 (-50%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $25 $4 −$21 (-83%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 213 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 17 $304 −$3 -1%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $204 −$200 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $465 +$203 +44%
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 17 $203 −$52 -26%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 17 $202 +$61 +30%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 17 $102 +$82 +80%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Jun 17 $101 −$100 -99%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 17 $101 −$100 -99%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 17 $203 +$231 +114%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 17 $914 +$673 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 15 $324 −$100 -31%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 15 $386 −$380 -98%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 14 $436 −$30 -7%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 14 $21 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -94%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 14 $203 −$21 -10%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $101 +$60 +60%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 13 $101 +$53 +52%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 13 $77 +$81 +105%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 13 $203 −$200 -98%
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 13 $208 +$172 +83%
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be betwe Jun 12 $172 +$37 +22%
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be betwe Jun 12 $124 −$120 -97%
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be at le Jun 12 $93 −$90 -96%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? Jun 12 $208 −$113 -54%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $204 +$11 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 12 $106 −$100 -94%
Las Vegas Aces vs. PortlandFire Jun 12 $23 −$23 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 12 $744 −$325 -44%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $101 −$100 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 12 $138 −$130 -94%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 12 $203 −$200 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 12 $924 +$534 +58%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 12 $607 +$409 +67%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 11 $607 +$235 +39%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $608 +$208 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 11 $343 −$332 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 11 $1,030 −$432 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 11 $543 +$413 +76%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 11 $304 +$182 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 10 $207 +$58 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 10 $622 −$500 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 10 $408 −$100 -24%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 10 $203 −$200 -98%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 10 $206 −$200 -97%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 10 $1,025 −$405 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 10 $2,341 −$336 -14%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 10 $3,280 +$111 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 10 $1,508 −$100 -7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Warsh say "Jerome" or "Powell" during June Press Conference? BUY Yes 55¢ $51 1h
Will Warsh say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during June Press Conference? BUY Yes 25¢ $103 1h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY Yes 0¢ $42 1h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY Yes 4¢ $42 1h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY Yes 0¢ $26 1h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 30¢ $102 4h
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves SELL Atlanta Braves 55¢ $301 4h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 31¢ $204 14h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $669 15h
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians SELL Cleveland Guardians 37¢ $151 16h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers SELL Milwaukee Brewers 82¢ $263 16h
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds SELL New York Mets 32¢ $184 16h
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Atlanta Braves 54¢ $304 17h
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY New York Mets 17¢ $102 17h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 58¢ $101 17h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 51¢ $101 17h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Milwaukee Brewers 62¢ $202 17h
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees SELL New York Yankees 98¢ $435 17h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox SELL Toronto Blue Jays 89¢ $807 17h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox SELL Toronto Blue Jays 86¢ $779 17h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $263 18h
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees BUY New York Yankees 45¢ $203 18h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Toronto Blue Jays 50¢ $406 18h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Toronto Blue Jays 49¢ $508 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $5 18h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $184 27h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $123 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET SELL Down 97¢ $261 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $105 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $5 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $869.91 · official $869.95 (match) · 2953 history records