Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T12:34:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
DB 0xdb5f…32e0 other 53 markets active 2d ago coverage 186d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$5 (+8%) realized +$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate55%29W / 24L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit40%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 62% $0
sports 38% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-5.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 +0.3% -9.3% 56% 50% +2.2%
≤30d 18 +0.3% -9.3% 56% 50% +2.2%
≤90d 18 +0.3% -9.3% 56% 50% +2.2%
all 53 +5.0% -5.0% 55% 53% -0.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.0% 53% -0.8%
10% -14.1% 49% -10.3%
15% -22.4% 40% -19.0%
20% -30.0% 32% -26.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +17% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.99 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.2 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

186d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses29 / 24
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)53 / 53
History coverage186d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit40%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 53 Trades
no open positions (23 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $3 +$2 +55%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $1 +$1 +75%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 $0 -32%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -99%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $2 +$1 +33%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $1 $0 +26%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 $0 +26%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $1 $0 +5%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 +$2 +194%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 −$1 -66%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 +$2 +200%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $1 +$1 +83%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $2 $0 +13%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $1 $0 -38%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -87%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-02-12? Feb 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-02-12? Feb 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2025-12-27? Dec 28 $1 $0 +37%
Chelsea FC vs. Aston Villa FC: Both Teams to Score Dec 28 $1 +$1 +75%
Will Fulham FC win on 2025-12-27? Dec 28 $1 +$2 +163%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2025-12-28? Dec 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Sunderland AFC win on 2025-12-28? Dec 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Everton FC win on 2025-12-27? Dec 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Celtics vs. Pacers Dec 27 $1 $0 +30%
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Dec 27 $1 +$1 +59%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks Dec 26 $1 $0 +47%
Pistons vs. Jazz Dec 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Hornets vs. Magic Dec 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Wizards vs. Hornets Dec 24 $1 $0 +47%
Bulls vs. Hawks Dec 24 $1 +$2 +150%
Knicks vs. Timberwolves Dec 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Real Betis Balompié win on 2025-12-21? Dec 22 $1 +$1 +79%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2025-12-21? Dec 22 $1 +$1 +79%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2025-12-21? Dec 22 $1 +$1 +113%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2025-12-20? Dec 21 $1 +$1 +59%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2025-12-20? Dec 21 $1 +$1 +104%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2025-12-20? Dec 20 $1 $0 +24%
Will Sunderland AFC win on 2025-12-20? Dec 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Sevilla FC win on 2025-12-20? Dec 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will RC Celta de Vigo win on 2025-12-20? Dec 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2025-12-20? Dec 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2025-12-15? Dec 15 $1 −$1 -100%
AS Roma vs. Como 1907: Both Teams to Score Dec 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2025-12-14? Dec 15 $1 $0 +39%
Will RC Celta de Vigo win on 2025-12-14? Dec 15 $1 +$2 +203%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2025-12-14? Dec 15 $1 +$5 +456%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2025-12-13? Dec 14 $1 $0 +22%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 78¢ $2 39h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 78¢ $1 39h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 50¢ $1 39h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 43¢ $1 39h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? SELL Yes 35¢ $1 39h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 79¢ $1 39h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $1 47h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $1 47h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 47h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $1 47h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 29¢ $0 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 80¢ $1 2d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? SELL Yes 29¢ $1 2d
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 0.5 SELL Under 37¢ $1 2d
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 0.5 BUY Under 34¢ $1 2d
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $1 3d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $2 3d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 33¢ $1 3d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 45¢ $1 3d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 42¢ $1 3d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 3d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 64¢ $1 3d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $1 3d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 3.5 BUY Over 42¢ $1 4d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $1 4d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 96¢ $1 4d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 90¢ $1 4d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 35¢ $1 4d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 SELL Under 29¢ $1 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 98 history records