Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T02:04:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
DB 0xdb5f…39c7 sports 286 markets active 1h ago coverage 220d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$3,474 (-7%) realized −$3,474 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate53%152W / 133L
Whale WR55%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$175per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$193est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$13,168
7 days−$11,940
14 days−$12,161
30 days−$12,042
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 90% −$3,588
other 9% +$388
crypto 1% −$212
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-22.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 124 -77.6% -79.8% 12% 12% -70.3%
≤30d 128 -74.2% -76.7% 14% 14% -64.3%
≤90d 159 -52.2% -56.8% 27% 27% -48.5%
all 285 -13.8% -22.0% 53% 49% -15.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.0% 49% -15.7%
10% -29.5% 42% -23.8%
15% -36.3% 33% -31.1%
20% -42.5% 26% -37.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -43% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 55% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +35% → late -63% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$90 vs −$128 · ×0.7 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

220d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$3,474
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses152 / 133
Whale WR (big bets)55%
Est. fees paid−$193
Open positions0
Markets (closed)285 / 286
History coverage220d
Avg bet$175
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 285 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Heat vs. Hawks Jun 20 $71 −$71 -100%
UFC 328: Pat Sabatini vs. William Gomis (Featherweight, Early Prelims) Jun 20 $51 −$51 -100%
Boston College vs. Syracuse Jun 20 $15 −$15 -100%
UFC 328: Grant Dawson vs. Mateusz Rebecki (Lightweight, Prelims) Jun 20 $51 −$51 -100%
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 20 $97 −$97 -100%
Kings vs. Canadiens Jun 20 $69 −$69 -100%
76ers vs. Bulls Jun 20 $74 −$74 -100%
Spread: Lions (-6.5) Jun 20 $82 −$82 -100%
Capitals vs. Golden Knights Jun 20 $63 −$63 -100%
Spread: Dolphins (-3.5) Jun 20 $69 −$69 -100%
Ole Miss vs. Georgia Jun 20 $8 −$8 -100%
Cowboys vs. Commanders Jun 20 $92 −$10 -11%
Chiefs vs. Cowboys Jun 20 $67 −$67 -100%
Canucks vs. Sharks Jun 20 $71 −$71 -100%
Patriots vs. Ravens Jun 20 $71 −$71 -100%
UFC 328: Tatsuro Taira vs. Joshua Van (Flyweight, Main Card) Jun 20 $68 −$68 -100%
Packers vs. Lions Jun 20 $66 −$66 -100%
Steelers vs. Bears Jun 20 $50 −$50 -100%
UFC 328: Djorden Santos vs. Baisangur Susurkaev (Middleweight, Early P Jun 20 $15 −$15 -100%
Bruins vs. Canadiens Jun 20 $70 −$70 -100%
Golden Knights vs. Avalanche Jun 20 $81 −$81 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons Jun 20 $4 −$4 -100%
Rockets vs. Heat Jun 20 $100 −$100 -100%
Spread: Raptors (-6.5) Jun 20 $106 −$106 -100%
Bills vs. Texans Jun 20 $137 −$137 -100%
Spurs vs. Thunder Jun 20 $115 −$115 -100%
Clippers vs. Grizzlies Jun 20 $125 −$125 -100%
Knicks vs. 76ers Jun 20 $102 −$102 -100%
Chiefs vs. Broncos Jun 20 $143 −$143 -100%
Saints vs. Buccaneers Jun 20 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Norwich City FC vs. Southampton FC end in a draw? Jun 20 $50 −$50 -100%
Spread: Ohio State (-9.5) Jun 20 $71 −$71 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Warriors Jun 20 $100 −$100 -100%
Spread: Patriots (-4.5) Jun 20 $70 −$70 -100%
North Texas Mean Green vs. UAB Blazers Jun 20 $108 −$108 -100%
Rutgers Scarlet Knights vs. Maryland Terrapins Jun 20 $108 −$108 -100%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $71 −$71 -100%
Duke vs. Virginia Jun 20 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 20 $116 −$116 -100%
Pistons vs. Magic Jun 20 $76 −$76 -100%
Spread: Canadiens (-1.5) Jun 20 $89 −$89 -100%
Canadiens vs. Avalanche Jun 20 $44 −$44 -100%
Men's Final - Canada vs. USA Jun 20 $123 −$123 -100%
Hornets vs. Raptors Jun 20 $82 −$82 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 20 $392 −$212 -54%
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes Jun 20 $71 −$71 -100%
Canadiens vs. Sabres Jun 20 $108 −$108 -100%
Spread: Thunder (-5.5) Jun 20 $98 −$98 -100%
Commanders vs. Vikings Jun 20 $40 −$40 -100%
Spread: Eagles (-1.5) Jun 20 $142 −$142 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 89¢ $474 39m
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 50¢ $271 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $272 2h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 80¢ $219 3h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 63¢ $140 7h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? AND Will Austria vs. Jordan BUY $39 3d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 41¢ $71 3d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 75¢ $110 3d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 46¢ $69 3d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 24¢ $73 4d
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 2 Uruguay? BUY Yes 17¢ $71 4d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 65¢ $116 4d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 56¢ $116 4d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $71 4d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 78¢ $180 5d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 43¢ $180 5d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 49¢ $212 5d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 70¢ $51 5d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 91¢ $350 5d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 SELL Over $17 5d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 9.5 SELL Over $7 5d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 45¢ $177 5d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 27¢ $20 5d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 BUY Over $10 5d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 9.5 BUY Over $5 5d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 64¢ $337 6d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 100¢ $338 6d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 76¢ $259 6d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 36¢ $258 6d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $437 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 613 history records