Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T15:23:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
DB 0xdb5b…4995 finance 38 markets active 1h ago coverage 48d
TRAPdo not copy finance specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$608 (+7%) realized +$618 · open −$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate56%20W / 16L
Whale WR80%big bets
Drawdown80%max
Avg bet$229per market
Trades / day9.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$172now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$259
7 days+$170
14 days−$32
30 days+$306
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
finance 98% +$342
other 1% $0
sports 1% +$39
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-5.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -15.9% -23.9% 50% 36% -4.0%
≤30d 33 +2.6% -7.2% 55% 39% -4.5%
≤90d 36 +4.4% -5.6% 56% 42% -3.8%
all 36 +4.4% -5.6% 56% 42% -3.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.6% 42% -3.8%
10% -14.6% 19% -13.0%
15% -22.9% 14% -21.4%
20% -30.4% 11% -29.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 80% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +23% → late -15% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
5.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$48 vs −$36 · ×1.35 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.68 per $1 lost it wins $1.68
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

48d coverage
Net worth$172
Realized+$618
Unrealized−$10
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses20 / 16
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)36 / 38
History coverage48d
Avg bet$229
Trades / day9.1
Drawdown80%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 36 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $725 Week of June 22 2026? No 66¢ 60¢ $139 $127 −$13 (-9%)
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $755 Week of June 22 2026? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $43 $45 +$2 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $730 Week of June 22 2026? Jun 23 $149 −$8 -5%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $720 Week of June 22 2026? Jun 23 $7 +$10 +146%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $740 Week of June 22 2026? Jun 23 $92 +$20 +21%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $735 Week of June 22 2026? Jun 23 $189 +$36 +19%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $760 Week of June 22 2026? Jun 23 $52 −$32 -62%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $770 in June? Jun 22 $1,073 +$148 +14%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $720 in June? Jun 22 $860 +$86 +10%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $710 in June? Jun 19 $448 +$31 +7%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $780 in June? Jun 19 $219 −$24 -11%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $730 Week of June 15 2026? Jun 18 $190 +$41 +22%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $760 Week of June 15 2026? Jun 18 $104 −$61 -58%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $735 Week of June 15 2026? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -96%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $765 Week of June 15 2026? Jun 18 $42 −$8 -20%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $740 Week of June 15 2026? Jun 17 $133 −$66 -49%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $720 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 12 $196 +$6 +3%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $700 in June? Jun 11 $555 −$28 -5%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $680 in June? Jun 11 $113 −$6 -6%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $750 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 11 $364 −$127 -35%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $690 in June? Jun 10 $37 +$4 +10%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $725 on June 9? Jun 09 $51 −$50 -98%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $765 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 09 $4 +$2 +48%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $730 in June? Jun 09 $166 −$10 -6%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $730 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 09 $43 +$14 +33%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $725 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 08 $59 +$7 +13%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $94 $0 -0%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $740 on June 5? Jun 05 $208 +$205 +99%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $740 Week of June 1 2026? Jun 05 $89 −$87 -98%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $745 Week of June 1 2026? Jun 05 $184 +$42 +23%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $740 in June? Jun 05 $335 −$60 -18%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $760 on June 1? Jun 01 $172 +$33 +19%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $730 in May? Jun 01 $648 +$62 +10%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $760 in May? May 29 $279 +$29 +10%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $750 in May? May 26 $765 +$100 +13%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $710 in May? May 21 $304 +$50 +16%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $770 in May? May 11 $42 −$4 -9%
Spread: FC Bayern München (-1.5) May 07 $61 +$39 +65%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $725 Week of June 22 2026? BUY No 66¢ $141 1h
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $755 Week of June 22 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $45 1h
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $730 Week of June 22 2026? SELL Yes 59¢ $12 1h
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $755 Week of June 22 2026? SELL No 87¢ $35 1h
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $730 Week of June 22 2026? SELL Yes 58¢ $14 1h
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $755 Week of June 22 2026? SELL No 87¢ $35 1h
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $720 Week of June 22 2026? SELL Yes 22¢ $7 1h
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $730 Week of June 22 2026? SELL Yes 62¢ $12 1h
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $755 Week of June 22 2026? SELL No 87¢ $70 1h
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $720 Week of June 22 2026? SELL Yes 25¢ $9 1h
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $730 Week of June 22 2026? SELL Yes 64¢ $63 1h
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $720 Week of June 22 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $7 8h
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $730 Week of June 22 2026? BUY Yes 61¢ $37 8h
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $735 Week of June 22 2026? BUY Yes 84¢ $25 8h
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $730 Week of June 22 2026? BUY Yes 56¢ $3 9h
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $735 Week of June 22 2026? BUY Yes 83¢ $58 9h
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $730 Week of June 22 2026? BUY Yes 53¢ $54 9h
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $755 Week of June 22 2026? BUY No 70¢ $7 9h
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $760 Week of June 22 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $9 10h
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $735 Week of June 22 2026? SELL No 30¢ $29 10h
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $755 Week of June 22 2026? SELL Yes 28¢ $22 10h
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $730 Week of June 22 2026? SELL No 52¢ $41 10h
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $725 Week of June 22 2026? SELL No 77¢ $38 10h
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $740 Week of June 22 2026? BUY Yes 82¢ $31 11h
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $755 Week of June 22 2026? BUY No 69¢ $45 11h
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $735 Week of June 22 2026? BUY Yes 51¢ $50 11h
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $760 Week of June 22 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $10 12h
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $740 Week of June 22 2026? BUY Yes 77¢ $6 12h
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $755 Week of June 22 2026? BUY No 63¢ $56 13h
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $740 Week of June 22 2026? BUY Yes 77¢ $40 13h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $171.84 · official $171.84 (match) · 450 history records