Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T21:58:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

DB
0xdb5b…1d03
weather · 196 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$64 -2%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$64 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$177
Realized−$64
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses99 / 97
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)196 / 196
History coverage32d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day32.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%
Chart Positions 0 History 196 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days+$4
14 days+$13
30 days−$58
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on May 30? No 92¢ 100¢ $81 $88 +$7 (+9%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 18°C on June 2? No 100¢ 100¢ $24 $24 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 20°C on June 2? No 98¢ 100¢ $17 $18 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 19°C on June 2? No 100¢ 100¢ $17 $18 +$0 (+1%)
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on June 4? No 99¢ 100¢ $13 $14 +$0 (+1%)
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 56-57°F on May 27? No 95¢ 100¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+5%)
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 12°C on May 29? No 99¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will the lowest temperature in London be 17°C or higher on May 27? No 73¢ 100¢ $3 $3 +$1 (+37%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 84-85°F on Ju Jun 12 $103 +$5 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 36°C or higher on June Jun 12 $26 $0 +2%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 16°C on June 12? Jun 11 $17 −$1 -6%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 71°F or below on June Jun 10 $32 −$2 -5%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 10 $7 −$1 -20%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 11? Jun 10 $46 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on Ju Jun 10 $3 $0 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C on June 11? Jun 09 $84 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on June Jun 08 $19 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 64-65°F on June Jun 08 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 75°F or below on June 8? Jun 08 $15 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C or higher on June 7? Jun 07 $6 +$1 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 36°C on June 7? Jun 07 $16 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 7? Jun 07 $19 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C or higher on June 7? Jun 07 $10 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 7? Jun 07 $24 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on June 7? Jun 06 $7 $0 +2%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on Jun Jun 05 $57 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Jun Jun 05 $131 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on June 5? Jun 04 $16 $0 -2%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on Jun Jun 04 $21 $0 +2%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on Jun Jun 04 $1 $0 -9%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on Jun Jun 04 $13 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on June 3? Jun 02 $4 $0 +4%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C on June 3? Jun 02 $20 −$2 -11%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 21°C on June 2? Jun 01 $36 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 19°C on June 2? Jun 01 $18 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 18°C on June 2? Jun 01 $24 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 20°C on June 2? Jun 01 $17 $0 +2%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 13°C on June 2? Jun 01 $4 $0 -3%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 3? Jun 01 $13 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C or below on June 2? Jun 01 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on May 31? May 30 $2 $0 -18%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C or below on May 31? May 30 $2 $0 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on May 30? May 29 $176 +$9 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on May 31? May 29 $2 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be 41°F or below on May 3 May 28 $23 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 64-65°F on May May 28 $7 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 65°F or below on May 29? May 28 $23 $0 -0%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 42-43°F on May May 28 $1 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 76-77°F on May 29? May 28 $157 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on May 29? May 28 $1 +$1 +103%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 76-77°F on May 29? May 28 $43 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 68°F or higher on May 29? May 28 $6 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 33°C on May 28? May 28 $2 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 84°F or higher on May 29? May 27 $6 −$1 -9%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 56-57°F on May May 27 $8 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 20°C on May 27? May 27 $158 +$2 +2%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 12°C on May 29? May 27 $22 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ma May 27 $21 +$1 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 91% −$41
sports 7% −$18
other 2% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 84-85°F on Ju SELL No 97¢ $44 1h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 84-85°F on Ju SELL No 99¢ $7 1h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 84-85°F on Ju SELL No 97¢ $7 1h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 84-85°F on Ju SELL No 99¢ $14 1h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 84-85°F on Ju SELL No 99¢ $8 1h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 84-85°F on Ju SELL No 97¢ $14 1h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 84-85°F on Ju SELL No 95¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 84-85°F on Ju SELL No 99¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 84-85°F on Ju SELL No 99¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 84-85°F on Ju SELL No 91¢ $6 2h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 84-85°F on Ju BUY No 94¢ $13 2h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 84-85°F on Ju BUY No 92¢ $14 2h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 84-85°F on Ju BUY No 92¢ $27 2h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 84-85°F on Ju BUY No 92¢ $8 2h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 84-85°F on Ju BUY No 92¢ $14 2h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 84-85°F on Ju BUY No 92¢ $14 2h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 84-85°F on Ju BUY No 92¢ $14 2h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 36°C or higher on June SELL No 100¢ $13 15h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 36°C or higher on June SELL No 99¢ $13 16h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 36°C or higher on June BUY No 98¢ $26 30h
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 16°C on June 12? SELL No 92¢ $12 35h
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 16°C on June 12? SELL No 96¢ $1 39h
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 16°C on June 12? SELL No 96¢ $3 39h
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 16°C on June 12? BUY No 98¢ $17 47h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 71°F or below on June SELL No 90¢ $5 2d
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 71°F or below on June SELL No 89¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 71°F or below on June SELL No 95¢ $3 2d
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 76-77°F on Ju SELL No 57¢ $0 2d
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 76-77°F on Ju SELL No 58¢ $3 2d
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 71°F or below on June SELL No 90¢ $5 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-14.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -0.3% -9.8% 71% 6% -8.8%
≤30d 179 -6.1% -15.0% 47% 8% -11.1%
≤90d 196 -5.8% -14.7% 51% 11% -11.2%
all 196 -5.8% -14.7% 51% 11% -11.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover32.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.7% 11% -11.2%
10% ← realistic here -22.9% 5% -19.7%
15% -30.3% 3% -27.4%
20% -37.2% 1% -34.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $176.98 · official $176.98 (match) · 1079 history records