Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T21:30:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DB 0xdb5a…3bf9 other 121 markets active 1h ago coverage 133d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$43 (-0%) realized −$43 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate9%11W / 109L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$169per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$29now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 52% −$11
politics 27% −$7
sports 13% −$26
tech 3% −$1
crypto 2% $0
economics 2% $0
culture 1% $0
world 1% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-11.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 18 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 85 -0.1% -9.6% 5% 0% -9.6%
all 120 -1.9% -11.3% 9% 3% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.3% 3% -9.7%
10% -19.8% 3% -18.4%
15% -27.5% 2% -26.3%
20% -34.6% 2% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 67% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
64% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$1 · ×5.22 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.53 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

133d coverage
Net worth$29
Realized−$43
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)9%
Wins / losses11 / 109
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)120 / 121
History coverage133d
Avg bet$169
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 120 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? No 99¢ 99¢ $29 $29 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 21 $28 $0 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 21 $25 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jun 21 $26 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 20 $193 $0 -0%
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 19 $25 $0 -0%
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jun 19 $21 $0 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $22 $0 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? May 31 $19 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 29 $147 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 28 $144 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 27 $721 −$1 -0%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 27 $137 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 26 $148 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 25 $125 $0 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 25 $147 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $593 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 23 $303 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 23 $280 $0 -0%
Will Kyle Langford win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 22 $154 $0 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 21 $128 $0 -0%
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 20 $148 $0 -0%
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 20 $130 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 18 $485 −$1 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 16 $136 $0 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 16 $123 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 14 $176 $0 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 13 $327 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 13 $143 $0 -0%
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 12 $145 $0 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? May 10 $176 $0 -0%
Will Solana reach $120 in April? May 09 $30 $0 +0%
Will Jeon Hyun-heui win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 20 $143 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 19 $126 $0 -0%
Will Cho Eun-hee win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 18 $304 $0 -0%
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 18 $152 $0 -0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 17 $177 $0 -0%
Will Na Kyung-won win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 17 $134 $0 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 16 $133 $0 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 16 $148 $0 -0%
Will Montenegro win Eurovision 2026? Apr 16 $140 $0 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 15 $323 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 15 $171 $0 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 15 $125 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 14 $137 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $144 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 13 $154 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Heat win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 12 $162 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 11 $134 $0 +0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 08 $451 $0 -0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ap Apr 08 $128 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $29 1h
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $28 1h
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $28 6h
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $25 6h
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $25 10h
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $26 10h
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $26 15h
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $28 30h
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $28 2d
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $25 2d
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $25 2d
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $21 2d
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $21 2d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $22 6d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $22 7d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $19 21d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $19 22d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $15 22d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $15 22d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $147 22d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $147 24d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $144 24d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $144 24d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $117 24d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $117 25d
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $137 25d
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $137 26d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $148 26d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $148 26d
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $125 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $28.99 · official $28.99 (match) · 363 history records