Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T23:45:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
DB 0xdb5a…048c crypto 481 markets active 1h ago coverage 99d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$2,745 (-7%) realized −$2,741 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate51%241W / 236L
Whale WR80%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$79per market
Trades / day12.2pace
Fees−$17est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$206now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$63
7 days−$13
14 days−$163
30 days−$1,076
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 80% −$3,436
other 18% +$124
sports 2% −$692
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-22.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 38 -7.0% -15.8% 66% 53% -10.0%
≤30d 110 -13.9% -22.1% 59% 48% -22.5%
≤90d 477 -13.9% -22.1% 51% 43% -19.4%
all 477 -13.9% -22.1% 51% 43% -19.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.1% 43% -19.4%
10% -29.6% 33% -27.1%
15% -36.4% 23% -34.1%
20% -42.6% 15% -40.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 80% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -12% → late -16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$39 vs −$57 · ×0.69 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

99d coverage
Net worth$206
Realized−$2,741
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses241 / 236
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Est. fees paid−$17
Open positions1
Markets (closed)477 / 481
History coverage99d
Avg bet$79
Trades / day12.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 477 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $211 $206 −$4 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 160 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 25 $61 −$47 -77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 25 $86 +$21 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 25 $209 −$209 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 25 $157 +$49 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 25 $155 +$8 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 25 $53 −$50 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 25 $62 −$10 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 25 $154 +$40 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 25 $51 +$4 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 25 $52 +$15 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 25 $122 +$54 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 25 $102 +$9 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 25 $62 +$15 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 25 $78 −$75 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 25 $10 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 25 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 25 $41 +$8 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 24 $62 −$26 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 24 $24 +$4 +15%
Scotland vs. Brazil: Both Teams to Score AND Will Morocco vs. Haiti en Jun 24 $84 −$59 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 24 $62 +$7 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 24 $51 +$15 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 24 $81 +$19 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 24 $73 +$41 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 24 $62 +$115 +185%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 24 $39 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 24 $51 +$20 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 19 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 19 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 19 $20 +$3 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 19 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 19 $68 +$109 +162%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 19 $41 +$14 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 19 $60 +$3 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 19 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 19 $122 +$29 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 19 $41 +$10 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 19 $20 +$2 +12%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Spread: Türkiye (-2.5) Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 02 $7 +$2 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 02 $51 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 02 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 02 $57 −$5 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 02 $102 +$11 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 02 $51 +$15 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 02 $46 −$30 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 02 $52 +$47 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 01 $34 −$33 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 01 $34 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 25¢ $215 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET SELL Down 12¢ $14 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $61 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET SELL Up 77¢ $60 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $46 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET SELL Up 57¢ $48 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $40 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $105 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $104 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET SELL Down 59¢ $147 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $104 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET SELL Down 48¢ $39 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $31 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET SELL Down 17¢ $20 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Down 14¢ $11 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $11 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET SELL Down 56¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET SELL Down 54¢ $59 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $53 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET SELL Down 86¢ $70 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET SELL Down 79¢ $125 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET SELL Down 69¢ $69 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET SELL Down 78¢ $55 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $51 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $206.34 · official $263.32 · 1361 history records