Wallet analysis

2026-06-30T02:28:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DB 0xdb59…f0eb politics 18 markets active 1h ago coverage 114d
TRAPdo not copy politics specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate6%1W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$96per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 50% −$1
other 40% $0
crypto 10% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 4 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 15 -0.1% -9.6% 7% 0% -9.6%
all 18 -0.1% -9.6% 6% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.69 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.11 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

114d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)6%
Wins / losses1 / 17
Open positions0
Markets (closed)18 / 18
History coverage114d
Avg bet$96
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 18 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 30 $173 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $86 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $174 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $86 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 28 $86 $0 -0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina May 23 $86 $0 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? May 19 $86 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 18 $86 $0 -0%
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 16 $86 $0 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 12 $86 $0 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 09 $86 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 14 $88 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Noren win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 10 $87 $0 +0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? Apr 06 $88 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 04 $88 $0 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 17 $88 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 in March? Mar 14 $88 $0 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 08 $88 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $85 1h
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $85 15h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $85 10d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $86 11d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $86 15d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $86 16d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 96¢ $86 19d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 96¢ $86 21d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $86 32d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $86 32d
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina SELL No 99¢ $86 37d
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina BUY No 99¢ $86 38d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $86 41d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $86 42d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $86 42d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $86 43d
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $86 44d
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $14 45d
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $59 45d
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $14 45d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $86 48d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $86 49d
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $86 51d
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $29 52d
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $52 52d
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $6 52d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $87 76d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $88 77d
Will Alexander Noren win the 2026 Masters tournament? SELL No 100¢ $88 80d
Will Alexander Noren win the 2026 Masters tournament? BUY No 100¢ $87 81d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 66 history records