Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T15:04:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DB 0xdb58…cef0 crypto 812 markets active 0h ago coverage 6d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 5d only
✗ bot/MM pace (437 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$1,806 (-27%) realized −$1,803 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate75%608W / 202L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day437.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$203
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (437 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-15.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 810 -6.7% -15.6% 75% 13% -12.3%
≤30d 810 -6.7% -15.6% 75% 13% -12.3%
≤90d 810 -6.7% -15.6% 75% 13% -12.3%
all 810 -6.7% -15.6% 75% 13% -12.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover437.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.6% 13% -12.3%
10% ← realistic here -23.6% 10% -20.6%
15% -31.0% 9% -28.3%
20% -37.8% 3% -35.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
82% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -16% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.21 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.62 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized−$1,803
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses608 / 202
Open positions2
Markets (closed)810 / 812
History coverage6d ⚠
Avg bet$8
Trades / day437.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 810 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Up 51¢ 70¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+38%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Down 37¢ 30¢ $2 $1 −$0 (-20%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Up 52¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 28 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$1 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$1 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 16 $11 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 16 $12 −$7 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 16 $9 −$4 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$3 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$3 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$3 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$3 -52%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $2 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $3 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $2 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $2 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $3 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $2 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $0 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $0 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $3 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $2 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $3 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $2 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $3 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $2 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $2 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $0 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $2 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $3 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $0 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $1 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $2 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $2 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $0 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $3 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $3 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $2 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.02 · official $5.03 (match) · 3500 history records