Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T03:52:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DB 0xdb56…2bc6 sports 40 markets active 0h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$239 (-10%) realized −$194 · open −$45
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate38%15W / 24L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$60per market
Trades / day9.1pace
Fees−$23est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 66% +$84
other 30% −$98
crypto 4% −$103
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-28.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 39 -20.9% -28.4% 38% 33% -12.3%
≤30d 39 -20.9% -28.4% 38% 33% -12.3%
≤90d 39 -20.9% -28.4% 38% 33% -12.3%
all 39 -20.9% -28.4% 38% 33% -12.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -28.4% 33% -12.3%
10% -35.3% 28% -20.7%
15% -41.5% 28% -28.4%
20% -47.3% 21% -35.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +19% → late -59% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$57 vs −$38 · ×1.48 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$194
Unrealized−$45
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses15 / 24
Est. fees paid−$23
Open positions1
Markets (closed)39 / 40
History coverage6d
Avg bet$60
Trades / day9.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 39 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Sweden 1 - 2 Tunisia? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $46 $0 −$45 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 15 $102 +$117 +114%
Exact Score: Sweden 3 - 1 Tunisia? Jun 15 $53 +$89 +168%
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 1 Tunisia? Jun 15 $52 +$1 +2%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $21 −$21 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $21 −$21 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 3 Japan? Jun 15 $103 −$103 -100%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $107 −$104 -98%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 3 - 3 Ecuador? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 2 - 0 Ecuador? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $398 +$47 +12%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $21 −$21 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 14 $21 −$21 -100%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $210 +$39 +19%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Spirit (-3.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+3.5) Jun 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pla Jun 13 $51 −$51 -100%
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl Jun 13 $102 −$102 -100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $66 −$66 -100%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 13 $102 +$57 +56%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 13 $21 +$18 +85%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 13 $41 −$41 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $21 +$90 +439%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $10 +$28 +269%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $47 +$19 +41%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $57 +$2 +4%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 12 $21 −$21 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $101 +$39 +39%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $102 −$102 -100%
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 11 $103 +$231 +225%
Valorant: Global Esports vs FULL SENSE (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 10 $56 +$42 +75%
Will Thailand win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $103 −$103 -100%
Valorant: Dragon Ranger Gaming vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters Londo Jun 09 $80 +$29 +37%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 99¢ $219 0m
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 45¢ $102 23m
Exact Score: Sweden 3 - 1 Tunisia? SELL Yes 40¢ $142 24m
Exact Score: Sweden 3 - 1 Tunisia? BUY Yes 14¢ $53 1h
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 1 Tunisia? SELL Yes 12¢ $53 1h
Exact Score: Sweden 1 - 2 Tunisia? BUY Yes 6¢ $47 2h
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 1 Tunisia? BUY Yes 11¢ $52 2h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 31¢ $107 3h
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 3 - 3 Ecuador? BUY Yes 3¢ $10 4h
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 2 - 0 Ecuador? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 4h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 8¢ $10 9h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 16¢ $21 9h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 3¢ $10 10h
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY G2 Esports 16¢ $21 10h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY 9z 10¢ $10 11h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 6¢ $10 11h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 5¢ $10 11h
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 3 Japan? BUY Yes 3¢ $103 13h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 24¢ $21 23h
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 100¢ $346 24h
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 85¢ $297 24h
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming - Map 1 Winner BUY XLG Gaming 14¢ $52 34h
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming - Map 1 Winner SELL G2 Esports 86¢ $249 34h
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming - Map 1 Winner BUY G2 Esports 53¢ $158 34h
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner BUY PARIVISION 15¢ $10 35h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY MOUZ 9¢ $10 36h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY EDward Gaming 24¢ $21 37h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY Monte 10¢ $21 38h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 99¢ $159 2d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 62¢ $102 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.38 · official $0.38 (match) · 81 history records