Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T14:58:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DB 0xdb54…8c93 sports 23 markets active 2h ago coverage 14d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$554 (-6%) realized −$553 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate32%7W / 15L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$423per market
Trades / day3.2pace
Fees−$131est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$158now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$38
7 days−$785
14 days−$295
30 days−$679
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$680
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-21.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -17.3% -25.2% 22% 22% -21.6%
≤30d 22 -13.1% -21.4% 32% 27% -15.9%
≤90d 22 -13.1% -21.4% 32% 27% -15.9%
all 22 -13.1% -21.4% 32% 27% -15.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.4% 27% -15.9%
10% -28.9% 18% -24.0%
15% -35.8% 14% -31.3%
20% -42.1% 14% -38.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$884) neutral
Persistence
early -5% → late -21% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$153 vs −$117 · ×1.31 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.61 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$158
Realized−$553
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses7 / 15
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$131
Open positions1
Markets (closed)22 / 23
History coverage14d
Avg bet$423
Trades / day3.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 22 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Canada (-1.5) South Africa 69¢ 68¢ $159 $158 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $170 −$9 -6%
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia O/U 0.5 Jun 27 $125 −$17 -14%
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia O/U 1.5 Jun 27 $41 −$12 -28%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Netherlands 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $180 +$222 +123%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Netherlands O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $1,005 +$184 +18%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Colombia O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $884 −$233 -26%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 0.5 Jun 24 $984 −$101 -10%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $1,023 −$522 -51%
Panama vs. Croatia: Panama 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $102 −$100 -98%
Panama vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 23 $102 −$100 -98%
England vs. Ghana: England 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $312 −$112 -36%
England vs. Ghana: England 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $97 −$60 -62%
Jordan vs. Algeria: Algeria 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $28 −$10 -35%
Norway vs. Senegal: Senegal 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $26 −$13 -47%
Norway vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $303 −$39 -13%
France vs. Iraq: France 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 22 $302 +$71 +23%
France vs. Iraq: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $101 −$39 -38%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $115 +$103 +90%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $191 +$146 +76%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $1,004 +$157 +16%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $1,972 +$187 +10%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Türkiye O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $493 −$384 -78%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY South Africa 69¢ $161 1h
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 60¢ $161 18h
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 62¢ $170 25h
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia O/U 0.5 SELL Over 66¢ $108 38h
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia O/U 1.5 SELL Over 29¢ $29 38h
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia O/U 1.5 BUY Over 39¢ $41 40h
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia O/U 0.5 BUY Over 75¢ $125 40h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Netherlands 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $403 2d
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Netherlands O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $1,189 2d
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Netherlands 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 44¢ $180 2d
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Netherlands O/U 1.5 BUY Over 84¢ $1,005 2d
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Colombia O/U 1.5 SELL Over 44¢ $651 4d
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Colombia O/U 1.5 BUY Over 58¢ $884 4d
Colombia vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 0.5 SELL Over 47¢ $884 4d
Colombia vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 0.5 BUY Over 51¢ $984 4d
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 40¢ $501 4d
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 80¢ $1,023 4d
Panama vs. Croatia: Panama 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 30¢ $102 4d
Panama vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 19¢ $102 4d
England vs. Ghana: England 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 49¢ $201 4d
England vs. Ghana: England 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 14¢ $37 4d
England vs. Ghana: England 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 35¢ $97 5d
England vs. Ghana: England 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 75¢ $312 5d
Jordan vs. Algeria: Algeria 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 31¢ $18 5d
Jordan vs. Algeria: Algeria 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 46¢ $28 5d
Norway vs. Senegal: Senegal 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 23¢ $14 5d
Norway vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 0.5 SELL Over 64¢ $264 5d
Norway vs. Senegal: Senegal 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 43¢ $26 5d
Norway vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 0.5 BUY Over 72¢ $303 5d
France vs. Iraq: France 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $373 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $158.30 · official $158.30 (match) · 48 history records