Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T04:44:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
DB 0xdb4e…05f7 crypto 47 markets active 2h ago coverage 3d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$225 (+14%) realized +$192 · open +$33
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate66%29W / 15L
Drawdown20%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day22.8pace
Fees−$15est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$439now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 56% +$207
crypto 40% +$113
weather 4% −$41
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-2.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 44 +7.4% -2.8% 66% 55% +9.5%
≤30d 44 +7.4% -2.8% 66% 55% +9.5%
≤90d 44 +7.4% -2.8% 66% 55% +9.5%
all 44 +7.4% -2.8% 66% 55% +9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -2.8% 55% +9.5%
10% ← realistic here -12.1% 41% -1.0%
15% -20.6% 39% -10.5%
20% -28.4% 36% -19.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +21% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$16 · ×1.05 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.03 per $1 lost it wins $2.03
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$439
Realized+$192
Unrealized+$33
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses29 / 15
Est. fees paid−$15
Open positions3
Markets (closed)44 / 47
History coverage3d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day22.8
Drawdown20%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 44 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Aurora Gaming 43¢ 42¢ $289 $283 −$6 (-2%)
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Under 57¢ 92¢ $65 $104 +$39 (+61%)
Map Handicap: LEV (-1.5) vs EDward Gaming (+1.5) EDward Gaming 53¢ 52¢ $53 $52 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Brazil (-4.5) Jun 20 $36 +$34 +97%
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) Jun 20 $51 −$26 -52%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $34 +$18 +52%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $49 +$39 +79%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Jun 19 $51 −$50 -98%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 19 $51 +$55 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 19 $3 −$3 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 19 $25 +$3 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 19 $25 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 19 $26 +$22 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 19 $5 +$9 +181%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 19 $25 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 19 $26 +$13 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 19 $26 +$13 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 19 $101 +$10 +10%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 19 $25 +$2 +8%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 19 $25 +$3 +12%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) AND Spread: Czechia (-1.5) AND Will Canada win o Jun 19 $25 +$20 +80%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $41 +$32 +79%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 18? Jun 18 $18 −$18 -100%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs Jun 18 $20 +$30 +145%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 18 $26 +$17 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 18 $25 +$4 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 18 $26 +$10 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 18 $25 +$4 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 18 $25 +$4 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 18 $25 +$4 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 18 $26 +$24 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 18 $25 −$25 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 18 $25 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 18 $51 −$13 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 18 $26 +$24 +93%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 18? Jun 18 $45 −$20 -43%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $24 +$6 +24%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 7.5 Corners Jun 17 $20 +$10 +51%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 18? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -96%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 6.5 Corners Jun 17 $15 −$15 -99%
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl Jun 17 $34 +$66 +196%
Honor of Kings: Dragon Ranger Gaming vs Talent Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $26 −$26 -100%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $20 −$20 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 57¢ $0 1h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 57¢ $19 1h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 57¢ $3 1h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 57¢ $42 1h
Map Handicap: LEV (-1.5) vs EDward Gaming (+1.5) BUY EDward Gaming 53¢ $54 1h
Spread: Brazil (-4.5) BUY Haiti 50¢ $36 3h
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) SELL Haiti 22¢ $24 3h
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) BUY Haiti 44¢ $51 3h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 65¢ $34 9h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 100¢ $88 10h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London BUY Team Vitality 32¢ $51 11h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof SELL Paper Rex 100¢ $0 11h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof SELL Paper Rex 100¢ $106 11h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 55¢ $49 13h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY Paper Rex 47¢ $51 14h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Aurora Gaming 43¢ $182 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $5 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $3 20h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $25 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $25 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $26 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $5 21h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $25 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $5 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $39 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $26 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $26 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $5 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $101 25h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $25 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $439.31 · official $439.31 (match) · 92 history records