Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T01:18:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
DB 0xdb4c…019b sports 735 markets active 1h ago coverage 245d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$19 (-2%) realized −$19 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate58%425W / 309L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day5.9pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$8
14 days−$7
30 days−$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 98% −$23
other 2% −$4
world 0% $0
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)-13.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 69 -12.8% -21.1% 48% 45% -17.7%
≤30d 177 -8.0% -16.7% 51% 50% -14.3%
≤90d 484 -5.7% -14.7% 54% 52% -12.4%
all 734 -4.2% -13.4% 58% 56% -12.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.4% 56% -12.0%
10% -21.7% 46% -20.4%
15% -29.2% 33% -28.1%
20% -36.2% 20% -35.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.65 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

245d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$19
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses425 / 309
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions1
Markets (closed)734 / 735
History coverage245d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day5.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 734 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 Over 57¢ 53¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 74 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Iraq vs. Norway: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $1 +$1 +68%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $1 +$1 +118%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $1 +$1 +79%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $1 +$1 +97%
Brescia: Jennifer Ruggeri vs Elena Ruxandra Bertea Jun 16 $1 −$1 -83%
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Grass Court Championships: Clara Tauson vs Diane Parry Jun 16 $1 $0 -49%
Nottingham Open: Lois Boisson vs Dayana Yastremska Jun 16 $1 $0 -3%
Brescia: Mia Ristic vs Deborah Chiesa Jun 16 $1 $0 +22%
Nottingham Open: McCartney Kessler vs Katie Volynets Jun 16 $1 −$1 -78%
Grass Court Championships: Magdalena Frech vs Eva Lys Jun 16 $1 +$1 +108%
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Kimberly Birrell Jun 16 $1 −$1 -99%
Grass Court Championships: Madison Keys vs Xinyu Wang Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $2 +$1 +44%
Exact Score: IR Iran 3 - 2 New Zealand? Jun 16 $1 $0 -46%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -99%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $1 −$1 -69%
Nottingham Open: Himeno Sakatsume vs Jessica Bouzas Maneiro Jun 15 $2 +$1 +48%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Rebeka Masarova vs Mia Pohan Jun 15 $1 +$1 +67%
Belgium vs. Egypt: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $1 −$1 -99%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 15 $1 $0 -6%
Brescia: Alessandra Mazzola vs Luisina Giovannini Jun 15 $1 $0 +4%
Nottingham Open: Maya Joint vs Yulia Starodubtseva Jun 15 $1 $0 +1%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Maria Timofeeva vs Renata Za Jun 15 $3 $0 -14%
Grass Court Championships: Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Anastasia Potapova Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Magdalena Frech vs Shuai Zha Jun 15 $3 $0 +13%
Nottingham Open: Tatjana Maria vs Janice Tjen Jun 15 $1 $0 +49%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Suzan Lamens vs Dalma Galfi Jun 15 $2 $0 +21%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Sweden to win the second half? Jun 15 $1 +$1 +89%
Exact Score: Sweden 3 - 1 Tunisia? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 15 $1 $0 -46%
Sweden leading at halftime? Jun 15 $1 +$2 +158%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 0 Ecuador? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -65%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $1 +$1 +78%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Himeno Sakatsume vs Alicia Dudeney Jun 14 $2 +$1 +66%
HSBC Championships: Donna Vekic vs Emma Raducanu Jun 14 $4 $0 -8%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Viktorija Golubic vs Sofia Kenin Jun 14 $1 +$1 +84%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Lulu Sun vs Anhelina Kalinin Jun 14 $1 $0 +41%
Libema Open: Robin Montgomery vs Barbora Krejcikova Jun 14 $1 $0 -33%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $1 +$1 +101%
Türkiye to score first vs. Australia? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Panna Udvardy vs Katie Volynets Jun 13 $1 −$1 -99%
Libema Open: Barbora Krejcikova vs Magda Linette Jun 13 $1 $0 +38%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 BUY Over 57¢ $1 1h
Iraq vs. Norway: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 99¢ $2 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 100¢ $2 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 45¢ $1 2h
Iraq vs. Norway: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 58¢ $1 2h
Brescia: Jennifer Ruggeri vs Elena Ruxandra Bertea SELL Elena Ruxandra Bertea 11¢ $0 10h
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 37¢ $1 10h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $1 10h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $1 10h
Grass Court Championships: Clara Tauson vs Diane Parry SELL Clara Tauson 23¢ $1 10h
Brescia: Jennifer Ruggeri vs Elena Ruxandra Bertea BUY Elena Ruxandra Bertea 61¢ $1 11h
Grass Court Championships: Clara Tauson vs Diane Parry BUY Clara Tauson 43¢ $1 11h
Brescia: Mia Ristic vs Deborah Chiesa SELL Mia Ristic 83¢ $1 12h
Nottingham Open: McCartney Kessler vs Katie Volynets SELL McCartney Kessler 11¢ $0 13h
Brescia: Mia Ristic vs Deborah Chiesa BUY Mia Ristic 67¢ $1 13h
Nottingham Open: Lois Boisson vs Dayana Yastremska BUY Dayana Yastremska 51¢ $1 13h
Grass Court Championships: Magdalena Frech vs Eva Lys SELL Eva Lys 100¢ $2 13h
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Kimberly Birrell BUY Kimberly Birrell 73¢ $1 14h
Nottingham Open: McCartney Kessler vs Katie Volynets BUY McCartney Kessler 47¢ $1 14h
Grass Court Championships: Madison Keys vs Xinyu Wang BUY Xinyu Wang 29¢ $1 16h
Grass Court Championships: Magdalena Frech vs Eva Lys BUY Eva Lys 47¢ $1 16h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $1 22h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 77¢ $1 22h
Exact Score: IR Iran 3 - 2 New Zealand? SELL Yes 13¢ $1 22h
Exact Score: IR Iran 3 - 2 New Zealand? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 22h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? SELL Yes 50¢ $2 22h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 22h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 56¢ $1 26h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 19¢ $0 26h
Nottingham Open: Himeno Sakatsume vs Jessica Bouzas Maneiro SELL Jessica Bouzas Maneiro 94¢ $3 33h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.93 · official $0.92 (match) · 1761 history records