Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T16:42:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
DB 0xdb4b…3a82 crypto 16 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$53 (+43%) realized +$53 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +42% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +19% what you keep after slip
Net edge+19%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate56%9W / 7L
Drawdown21%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day9.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 46% −$9
sports 28% +$44
other 18% +$21
world 8% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)+28.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +42.1% +28.6% 56% 56% +28.8%
≤30d 16 +42.1% +28.6% 56% 56% +28.8%
≤90d 16 +42.1% +28.6% 56% 56% +28.8%
all 16 +42.1% +28.6% 56% 56% +28.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +28.6% 56% +28.8%
10% +16.3% 56% +16.5%
15% +5.0% 56% +5.2%
20% -5.3% 50% -5.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 48% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +42% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +42% · $-wt +42% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +96% → late -12% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$4 · ×2.08 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.68 per $1 lost it wins $2.68
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$53
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses9 / 7
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)16 / 16
History coverage2d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day9.8
Drawdown21%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 16 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$4 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$3 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$3 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +48%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $10 −$3 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $5 +$20 +388%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $10 +$10 +101%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $22 +$21 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$5 +101%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $6 +$15 +250%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 14 $13 −$1 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 14 $11 −$6 -56%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $5 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $5 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $5 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 34¢ $7 14h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 50¢ $10 15h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 20¢ $5 36h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Ciryl Gane 49¢ $10 36h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $43 36h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $22 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $5 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 2d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $6 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) SELL Derrick Lewis 22¢ $12 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Derrick Lewis 23¢ $13 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET SELL Up 1¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $5 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 31 history records