Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T12:49:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
DB 0xdb46…7e96 sports 26 markets active 2h ago coverage 535d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$16 (-0%) realized −$16 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate60%15W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$435per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$81now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 96% −$18
crypto 2% +$1
other 1% $0
tech 0% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 1 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 1 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 25 -0.6% -10.1% 60% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.7% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.5% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 53% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.05 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.07 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

535d coverage
Net worth$81
Realized−$16
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses15 / 10
Open positions1
Markets (closed)25 / 26
History coverage535d
Avg bet$435
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 25 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will BNB dip to $300 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $81 $81 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Solana reach $110 in May? Jun 12 $96 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 in December? Jan 09 $20 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $5,000 in November? Dec 05 $24 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $3000 in October? Nov 07 $25 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $95K in September? Oct 16 $24 $0 +0%
Will a dozen eggs be between $4.25-4.50 in August? Sep 16 $27 $0 +0%
Will xAI have the top AI model on July 31? Aug 03 $20 $0 +0%
Will China unban Bitcoin by June 30? Jul 07 $17 $0 +0%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on May 31? Jun 04 $25 $0 +1%
Will Denmark win Eurovision 2025? May 16 $17 $0 -0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.24 in April? May 06 $27 $0 +0%
Will Will Campbell be the first pick of the 2025 NFL Draft? Apr 17 $21 $0 -0%
Will Solana dip to $100 by March? Apr 03 $21 $0 +2%
Will egg prices be less than $4.50 in February? Mar 14 $12 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2025 NBA Finals? Feb 23 $10,656 −$11 -0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Feb 15 $19 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $3,750 by January 31, 2025? Feb 02 $14 $0 +0%
Will Stuttgart win the UEFA Champions League? Feb 02 $17 $0 +0%
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the Eastern Conference? Jan 24 $11 $0 -0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2025 meeting? Jan 24 $22 $0 -0%
Will Stade Brestois win the UEFA Champions League? Jan 20 $29 $0 -0%
Will the Brooklyn Nets win the Eastern Conference? Jan 17 $12 $0 -0%
Will Monaco win the UEFA Champions League? Jan 14 $28 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jan 08 $2 $0 -3%
Will Red Bull Salzburg win the UEFA Champions League? Jan 07 $41 −$7 -17%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will BNB dip to $300 in June? BUY No 100¢ $81 1h
Will Solana reach $110 in May? BUY No 100¢ $96 30d
Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 in December? BUY No 100¢ $20 182d
Will Ethereum reach $5,000 in November? BUY No 100¢ $24 211d
Will Ethereum dip to $3000 in October? BUY No 100¢ $25 238d
Will Bitcoin dip to $95K in September? BUY No 100¢ $24 270d
Will a dozen eggs be between $4.25-4.50 in August? BUY No 100¢ $27 301d
Will xAI have the top AI model on July 31? BUY No 100¢ $20 331d
Will China unban Bitcoin by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $17 363d
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on May 31? BUY No 99¢ $25 393d
Will Denmark win Eurovision 2025? SELL No 100¢ $17 405d
Will Denmark win Eurovision 2025? BUY No 100¢ $17 414d
Will Dogecoin reach $0.24 in April? BUY No 100¢ $27 425d
Will Will Campbell be the first pick of the 2025 NFL Draft? SELL No 100¢ $21 435d
Will Will Campbell be the first pick of the 2025 NFL Draft? BUY No 100¢ $21 435d
Will Solana dip to $100 by March? BUY No 98¢ $21 459d
Will egg prices be less than $4.50 in February? BUY No 100¢ $12 485d
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2025 NBA Finals? SELL No 100¢ $10,646 488d
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2025 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $10,656 488d
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2025 NBA Finals? SELL No 99¢ $19 496d
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2025 NBA Finals? BUY No 99¢ $19 501d
Will Ethereum hit $3,750 by January 31, 2025? BUY No 100¢ $14 511d
Will Stuttgart win the UEFA Champions League? BUY No 100¢ $17 514d
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the Eastern Conference? SELL No 99¢ $10 518d
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2025 meeting? SELL No 100¢ $22 518d
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the Eastern Conference? BUY No 100¢ $11 518d
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2025 meeting? BUY No 100¢ $22 520d
Will Stade Brestois win the UEFA Champions League? SELL No 100¢ $29 521d
Will Stade Brestois win the UEFA Champions League? BUY No 100¢ $29 522d
Will the Brooklyn Nets win the Eastern Conference? SELL No 100¢ $12 524d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $81.20 · official $81.20 (match) · 51 history records