Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T09:13:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
DB 0xdb46…2df3 crypto 246 markets active 1h ago coverage 246d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$998 (-34%) realized −$998 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate41%102W / 144L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$909
7 days−$909
14 days−$909
30 days−$909
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 66% −$954
other 18% −$38
sports 16% −$90
politics 0% +$2
world 0% +$2
finance 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-14.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤90d 3 -1.0% -10.4% 33% 33% -97.1%
all 246 -5.1% -14.1% 41% 38% -43.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.1% 38% -43.5%
10% -22.4% 35% -48.9%
15% -29.9% 30% -53.9%
20% -36.7% 29% -58.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -97% too few recent
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -38% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +58% → late -69% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$12 · ×0.54 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.38 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

246d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$998
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses102 / 144
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)246 / 246
History coverage246d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 246 Trades
no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 26 $943 −$909 -96%
Map Handicap: NAVI (-2.5) vs GamerLegion (+2.5) May 18 $10 +$20 +197%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - DraculaN Playoffs Mar 31 $14 −$14 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Mar 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Mar 21 $3 +$5 +169%
Devils vs. Capitals Mar 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs TYLOO (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Group A Mar 21 $4 +$5 +122%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Mar 04 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Mar 04 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Mar 04 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on March 4? Mar 04 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Mar 04 $35 −$5 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Mar 04 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Mar 04 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Mar 04 $28 −$28 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Mar 04 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Mar 04 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Mar 04 $21 +$19 +89%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 1 Mar 04 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2025–2026 NBA Pacific Division? Mar 04 $1 −$1 -90%
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 04 $1 −$1 -67%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 04 $1 $0 -42%
Will Purdue win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 04 $1 $0 -39%
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 04 $1 $0 -38%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 04 $1 $0 -25%
Will Houston win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 04 $1 $0 -12%
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Mar 04 $1 +$2 +159%
Will Man City win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 04 $10 −$1 -14%
Hawks vs. Bucks Mar 04 $5 $0 -6%
Hawks vs. Bucks: O/U 231.5 Mar 04 $5 $0 -2%
Will Joe Mazzulla win the 2025–2026 NBA Coach of the Year? Mar 04 $4 +$1 +32%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in March? Mar 04 $15 −$8 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Mar 04 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Mar 04 $20 +$5 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Mar 04 $47 +$3 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Mar 04 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-03-04? Mar 04 $5 +$4 +72%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-03-04? Mar 04 $3 −$3 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-03-03? Mar 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Wizards vs. Magic Mar 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Pelicans vs. Lakers Mar 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Mar 04 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Mar 04 $8 −$3 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Mar 04 $5 +$5 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Mar 04 $2 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Mar 04 $5 +$5 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Mar 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Celtics (-7.5) Mar 03 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Mar 03 $4 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Mar 03 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $156 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $786 1h
Map Handicap: NAVI (-2.5) vs GamerLegion (+2.5) BUY Natus Vincere 33¢ $10 39d
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - DraculaN Playoffs BUY Aurora Gaming 66¢ $14 86d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $1 97d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET SELL Up 90¢ $8 97d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $3 97d
Devils vs. Capitals BUY Devils 12¢ $1 97d
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs TYLOO (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Group A BUY TYLOO 45¢ $4 97d
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2025–2026 NBA Pacific Division? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 113d
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 113d
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 113d
Will Purdue win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 113d
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 113d
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 113d
Will Houston win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? SELL Yes 7¢ $1 113d
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? SELL No 44¢ $3 113d
Will Man City win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL Yes 9¢ $4 113d
Hawks vs. Bucks SELL Bucks 50¢ $5 113d
Hawks vs. Bucks: O/U 231.5 SELL Over 52¢ $5 113d
Will Joe Mazzulla win the 2025–2026 NBA Coach of the Year? SELL Yes 20¢ $5 113d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in March? SELL Yes 25¢ $7 113d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $20 113d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET SELL Down 25¢ $20 113d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET SELL Down 26¢ $1 113d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $20 113d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $10 113d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET SELL Up 41¢ $30 113d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $25 113d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET SELL Down 43¢ $25 113d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 609 history records