Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T16:13:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DB 0xdb41…fdf0 crypto 55 markets active 1h ago coverage 500d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$6 (-1%) realized −$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate80%43W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$53now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 44% +$1
other 25% $0
politics 14% $0
tech 9% $0
economics 6% $0
weather 2% $0
world 1% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-11.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 6 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 54 -1.7% -11.1% 80% 0% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.1% 0% -10.1%
10% -19.6% 0% -18.7%
15% -27.3% 0% -26.5%
20% -34.5% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.05 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.18 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

500d coverage
Net worth$53
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses43 / 11
Open positions1
Markets (closed)54 / 55
History coverage500d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 54 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $53 $53 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Hyperliquid dip to $38 in May? Jun 03 $6 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid dip to $32 in May? Jun 03 $50 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $50 in April? May 05 $12 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $130 in April? May 05 $37 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $2.40 in March? Apr 02 $11 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in March? Apr 02 $41 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in February? Mar 03 $9 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid reach $48 in February? Mar 03 $34 $0 +0%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? Feb 02 $3 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid hit $42 in January? Feb 02 $10 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in January? Feb 02 $42 $0 +0%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on December 31? Jan 01 $11 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 01 $33 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.80 in November? Dec 03 $9 $0 +0%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of November 2025? Dec 03 $40 $0 +0%
Will Alibaba have the best AI model on October 31? Nov 04 $8 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $300 in October? Nov 04 $15 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the most valuable company on October 31? Nov 04 $23 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $130K in September? Oct 03 $9 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $6000 in September? Oct 03 $18 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $130 in September? Oct 03 $23 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $135K in August? Sep 01 $11 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $150 in August? Sep 01 $36 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after July 2025 meeting? Aug 03 $15 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $140K in July? Aug 03 $32 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum dip to $1800 in June? Jul 02 $11 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $2.8 in June? Jul 02 $13 $0 +0%
Trump x Ukraine mineral deal signed before May? Jun 22 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Solana reach $250 in May? Jun 22 $4 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.50 in May? Jun 22 $9 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.10 in May? Jun 22 $11 $0 +0%
U.S. recession before May 2025? May 05 $2 $0 +0%
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on April 30? May 05 $4 $0 +0%
Will Trump remove tariff on China before May? May 05 $5 $0 +1%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be less than 20% on April 30? May 05 $7 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1200 in April? May 05 $7 $0 +0%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before May? May 05 $8 $0 +0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2025 National League Championship? Apr 16 $46 $0 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2025? Apr 15 $42 $0 -0%
Will Stačilo! win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary elect Apr 15 $54 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Elon Musk in his first 100 days? Apr 13 $50 $0 -0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after June 2025 meeting? Apr 11 $48 $0 -0%
Bitcoin all time high by March 31? Apr 01 $2 $0 +0%
Ethereum all time high by March 31? Apr 01 $9 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 by March 31? Apr 01 $10 $0 +1%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on March 31? Apr 01 $10 $0 +0%
Solana all time high by March 31? Apr 01 $12 $0 +0%
Will Quinn Hughes win the Hart Trophy? Mar 18 $43 $0 -0%
Will Anton Pisaroglu win the Romanian presidential election? Mar 17 $56 $0 -0%
Will global temperature increase by between 1.35-1.39ºC in February 20 Mar 08 $18 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in June? BUY No 100¢ $53 1h
Will Hyperliquid dip to $38 in May? BUY No 100¢ $6 29d
Will Hyperliquid dip to $32 in May? BUY No 100¢ $50 30d
Will Solana dip to $50 in April? BUY No 100¢ $12 60d
Will Solana reach $130 in April? BUY No 100¢ $37 61d
Will XRP reach $2.40 in March? BUY No 100¢ $11 91d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $41 92d
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in February? BUY No 100¢ $9 120d
Will Hyperliquid reach $48 in February? BUY No 100¢ $34 122d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $3 148d
Will Hyperliquid hit $42 in January? BUY No 99¢ $10 148d
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in January? BUY No 100¢ $42 150d
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on December 31? BUY No 100¢ $11 180d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2025? BUY No 100¢ $33 181d
Will XRP reach $3.80 in November? BUY No 100¢ $9 210d
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of November 2025? BUY No 100¢ $40 211d
Will Alibaba have the best AI model on October 31? BUY No 100¢ $8 240d
Will Solana reach $300 in October? BUY No 100¢ $15 241d
Will NVIDIA be the most valuable company on October 31? BUY Yes 100¢ $23 241d
Will Bitcoin reach $130K in September? BUY No 100¢ $9 271d
Will Ethereum reach $6000 in September? BUY No 100¢ $18 272d
Will Solana dip to $130 in September? BUY No 100¢ $23 273d
Will Bitcoin reach $135K in August? BUY No 100¢ $11 300d
Will Solana dip to $150 in August? BUY No 100¢ $36 301d
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after July 2025 meeting? BUY No 99¢ $15 334d
Will Bitcoin reach $140K in July? BUY No 99¢ $32 334d
Will Ethereum dip to $1800 in June? BUY No 100¢ $11 362d
Will XRP reach $2.8 in June? BUY No 100¢ $13 364d
Will XRP dip to $1.50 in May? BUY No 100¢ $9 392d
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.10 in May? BUY No 100¢ $11 394d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $52.98 · official $52.98 (match) · 110 history records