Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T06:51:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DB 0xdb41…8d28 world 22 markets active 2h ago coverage 485d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate55%12W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days+$3
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 51% −$2
other 42% $0
sports 5% +$2
tech 2% $0
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-4.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.9%
≤30d 10 +9.0% -1.4% 20% 10% -10.0%
≤90d 10 +9.0% -1.4% 20% 10% -10.0%
all 22 +5.7% -4.4% 55% 9% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.4% 9% -9.5%
10% -13.5% 5% -18.2%
15% -21.9% 5% -26.1%
20% -29.5% 5% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 70% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
83% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late +8% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.41 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

485d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses12 / 10
Open positions0
Markets (closed)22 / 22
History coverage485d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 22 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 19 $43 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $50 $0 -1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $3 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 07 $39 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $84 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 06 $2 +$2 +101%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 05 $54 +$1 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 02 $42 −$5 -11%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 02 $45 $0 -0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 01 $42 $0 +0%
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before July? Dec 10 $2 $0 +2%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on June 30? Dec 10 $8 $0 +5%
Will Lee Jae-myung win less than 35% of the vote in the South Korea el Jun 06 $1 $0 +1%
Will Mario Grech be the next pope? May 09 $1 $0 +1%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the Eastern Conference? May 06 $2 $0 +1%
Will Borussia Dortmund win the UEFA Champions League? Apr 17 $1 $0 +1%
Will 'Adolescence: Limited Series' be the top global Netflix show this Mar 18 $11 $0 +0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 14 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 14 $1 $0 +5%
USA wins the most gold medals in 2025 Special Olympics? Mar 14 $10 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the UEFA Champions League? Mar 13 $11 $0 +3%
St. John's vs. DePaul Mar 03 $9 +$1 +16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $43 1h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $43 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $3 19h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $7 19h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 20h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $40 25h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $40 29h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $3 35h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $3 37h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 31¢ $39 11d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 31¢ $39 11d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $44 11d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 95¢ $44 12d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $40 12d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 95¢ $40 12d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL Yes $0 13d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL Yes $4 13d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY Yes $2 13d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 69¢ $42 13d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 69¢ $42 13d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 33¢ $13 14d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 31¢ $12 14d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 73¢ $4 16d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 73¢ $4 16d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 73¢ $30 16d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 82¢ $42 16d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 99¢ $45 17d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 99¢ $45 17d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 47¢ $6 17d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 47¢ $36 17d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 61 history records