Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T20:32:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
DB 0xdb41…685e crypto 132 markets active 1h ago coverage 167d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,032 (-9%) realized −$1,036 · open +$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate61%80W / 51L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$87per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$43now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$90
7 days+$90
14 days+$90
30 days+$90
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 56% −$1,357
world 36% +$221
weather 3% +$91
politics 3% −$116
other 1% +$3
tech 1% −$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-15.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +19.3% +7.9% 100% 67% +7.6%
≤30d 3 +19.3% +7.9% 100% 67% +7.6%
≤90d 3 +19.3% +7.9% 100% 67% +7.6%
all 131 -6.7% -15.6% 61% 48% -19.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.6% 48% -19.2%
10% -23.6% 40% -26.9%
15% -31.0% 28% -34.0%
20% -37.8% 18% -40.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +19% too few recent
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -14% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$50 · ×0.34 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.54 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

167d coverage
Net worth$43
Realized−$1,036
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses80 / 51
Open positions1
Markets (closed)131 / 132
History coverage167d
Avg bet$87
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 131 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 94-95°F on June 29? Yes 87¢ 97¢ $39 $43 +$4 (+11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 21 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 27°C on June 29? Jun 29 $156 +$44 +28%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 29? Jun 29 $156 +$43 +28%
Khamenei seen in public by March 14? Jun 29 $165 +$3 +2%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? Feb 28 $140 −$136 -97%
Will Trump say "Charlie Kirk" during the State of the Union address? Feb 28 $105 +$56 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Feb 10 $455 −$399 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Feb 10 $27 +$13 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Feb 10 $359 +$20 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Feb 10 $621 −$178 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Feb 10 $80 −$72 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Feb 10 $39 +$6 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Feb 09 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Feb 09 $20 +$4 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 8, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Feb 08 $20 +$11 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 8, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Feb 08 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 8, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Feb 08 $25 +$11 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 8, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Feb 08 $10 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 8, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Feb 08 $110 +$15 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 8, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Feb 08 $110 +$6 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 8, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Feb 08 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 8, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Feb 08 $20 −$10 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 8, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Feb 08 $5 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 8, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Feb 08 $10 +$5 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 7, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Feb 07 $40 +$25 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 7, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Feb 07 $17 +$9 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 7, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Feb 07 $20 −$8 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 7, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Feb 07 $110 −$10 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 7, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Feb 07 $120 −$96 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 7, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Feb 07 $120 +$12 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 7, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Feb 07 $10 +$1 +14%
Will Israel strike Gaza on February 5, 2026? Feb 07 $121 +$30 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 7, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Feb 07 $200 +$18 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 7, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Feb 07 $25 −$22 -87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 7, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Feb 07 $20 +$7 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 7, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Feb 07 $100 −$99 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 7, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Feb 07 $225 −$207 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 7, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Feb 07 $150 +$53 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 7, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Feb 07 $100 +$43 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 7, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Feb 07 $250 −$228 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 7, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Feb 07 $400 +$145 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 7, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Feb 07 $150 −$87 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 7, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Feb 07 $220 −$20 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 7, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Feb 07 $150 −$149 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 7, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Feb 07 $140 −$113 -81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 7, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Feb 07 $20 +$8 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 6, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Feb 07 $10 +$4 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 6, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Feb 07 $100 +$39 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 6, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Feb 07 $40 −$36 -89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 6, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Feb 07 $20 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 6, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Feb 07 $20 +$7 +35%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 94-95°F on June 29? BUY Yes 91¢ $26 1h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 94-95°F on June 29? BUY Yes 81¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 94-95°F on June 29? BUY Yes 81¢ $9 1h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 27°C on June 29? SELL Yes 100¢ $200 3h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 27°C on June 29? BUY Yes 78¢ $43 8h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 27°C on June 29? BUY Yes 78¢ $5 8h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 27°C on June 29? BUY Yes 78¢ $5 8h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 27°C on June 29? BUY Yes 78¢ $9 8h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 27°C on June 29? BUY Yes 78¢ $23 8h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 27°C on June 29? BUY Yes 78¢ $4 8h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 27°C on June 29? BUY Yes 78¢ $3 8h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 27°C on June 29? BUY Yes 78¢ $8 8h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 27°C on June 29? BUY Yes 78¢ $8 8h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 27°C on June 29? BUY Yes 78¢ $4 8h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 27°C on June 29? BUY Yes 78¢ $5 8h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 27°C on June 29? BUY Yes 78¢ $23 8h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 27°C on June 29? BUY Yes 78¢ $12 8h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 27°C on June 29? BUY Yes 78¢ $5 8h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 29? SELL Yes 100¢ $199 8h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 29? BUY Yes 78¢ $44 14h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 29? BUY Yes 78¢ $2 14h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 29? BUY Yes 78¢ $31 14h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 29? BUY Yes 78¢ $16 14h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 29? BUY Yes 78¢ $9 14h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 29? BUY Yes 78¢ $2 14h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 29? BUY Yes 78¢ $53 15h
Khamenei seen in public by March 14? BUY No 98¢ $165 120d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? SELL No 2¢ $4 120d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $405 139d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET SELL Up 60¢ $3 139d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $43.42 · official $43.42 (match) · 434 history records