Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T10:53:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DB 0xdb40…7aa5 crypto 341 markets active 0h ago coverage 20d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$49 (-5%) realized −$48 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate59%202W / 138L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day19.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$24
14 days−$24
30 days−$57
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$58
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)-13.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 235 -5.0% -14.0% 64% 62% -12.7%
≤30d 340 -4.7% -13.8% 59% 56% -15.3%
≤90d 340 -4.7% -13.8% 59% 56% -15.3%
all 340 -4.7% -13.8% 59% 56% -15.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.8% 56% -15.3%
10% -22.0% 47% -23.4%
15% -29.5% 40% -30.8%
20% -36.4% 28% -37.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.56 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

20d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$48
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses202 / 138
Open positions1
Markets (closed)340 / 341
History coverage20d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day19.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 340 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Down 56¢ 20¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-63%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 134 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$2 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $2 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $2 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $2 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $2 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $2 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $2 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.83 · official $1.48 (match) · 586 history records