Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T17:31:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DB 0xdb40…3612 other 519 markets active 0h ago coverage 30d ⚠
BOTnot copyable Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 30d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (106 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$1,054 (-1%) realized −$582 · open −$472
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +23% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate60%245W / 162L
Whale WR82%big bets
Drawdown41%max
Avg bet$343per market
Trades / day106.3pace
Fees−$47est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$29,321now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 30d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 36% +$6,212
other 22% −$2,158
politics 13% +$2,102
crypto 11% +$392
tech 6% −$23
economics 5% +$57
sports 4% +$631
finance 2% +$60
weather 0% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (106 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)+11.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 148 -23.4% -30.7% 56% 15% -13.8%
≤30d 407 +22.8% +11.1% 60% 19% -5.2%
≤90d 407 +22.8% +11.1% 60% 19% -5.2%
all 407 +22.8% +11.1% 60% 19% -5.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover106.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +11.1% 19% -5.2%
10% ← realistic here +0.5% 12% -14.3%
15% -9.2% 8% -22.6%
20% -18.1% 6% -30.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
68% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +23% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 82% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +64% → late -18% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$60 vs −$45 · ×1.33 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.12 per $1 lost it wins $2.12
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

30d coverage
Net worth$29,321
Realized−$582
Unrealized−$472
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses245 / 162
Whale WR (big bets)82%
Est. fees paid−$47
Open positions179
Markets (closed)407 / 519
History coverage30d ⚠
Avg bet$343
Trades / day106.3
Drawdown41%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 179 History 407 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30? No 99¢ 99¢ $5,098 $5,111 +$13 (+0%)
Will Trump speak to Pope Leo XIV in June? No 86¢ 94¢ $2,348 $2,585 +$238 (+10%)
Will EDward Gaming win Valorant Masters London 2026? No 93¢ 100¢ $1,461 $1,578 +$117 (+8%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 80¢ 80¢ $1,204 $1,205 +$1 (+0%)
Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by June 30, 2026? No 86¢ 77¢ $1,297 $1,160 −$137 (-11%)
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by June 30, 2026? No 92¢ 98¢ $832 $886 +$54 (+6%)
Will Trump shake hands with an Iranian official by June 20? No 94¢ 100¢ $839 $885 +$46 (+6%)
Will Russia capture Dovha Balka by June 30? No 84¢ 90¢ $806 $867 +$61 (+8%)
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? No 87¢ 96¢ $773 $852 +$79 (+10%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? No 93¢ 86¢ $827 $764 −$63 (-8%)
Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026? Yes 87¢ 70¢ $703 $570 −$133 (-19%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.5T by June 30? No 92¢ 98¢ $469 $501 +$32 (+7%)
Will Trump talk to Mojtaba Khamenei by June 30? No 96¢ 99¢ $431 $443 +$12 (+3%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.3T by June 30? No 90¢ 98¢ $402 $434 +$32 (+8%)
Will Trump speak to Kim Jong Un in June? No 92¢ 96¢ $372 $388 +$16 (+4%)
Will Grahm Platner drop out before the Midterms? No 85¢ 86¢ $363 $369 +$6 (+2%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? No 85¢ 68¢ $399 $321 −$78 (-19%)
Will Leviatán win Valorant Masters London 2026? No 76¢ 68¢ $354 $317 −$37 (-10%)
Will Prabowo Subianto cease to be President of Indonesia by June 30, 2026? No 94¢ 98¢ $300 $314 +$14 (+5%)
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $750B by December 31? No 84¢ 61¢ $422 $305 −$117 (-28%)
Will Lambda's valuation hit (LOW) $7B by June 30? No 66¢ 92¢ $213 $299 +$86 (+40%)
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $700B by June 30? No 94¢ 98¢ $285 $298 +$13 (+5%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Xi Jinping by June 30, 2026? No 95¢ 99¢ $284 $295 +$12 (+4%)
Will there be 15+ missed penalties during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 81¢ 96¢ $243 $288 +$45 (+19%)
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $750B by June 30? No 91¢ 95¢ $277 $288 +$11 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 22 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Joseph Palimeno be the Democratic Nominee for GA-01? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Adriano Espaillat win the NY-13 Democratic Primary by 10% or more Jun 20 $93 −$6 -6%
Will Bangladesh recognize Israel by December 31? Jun 20 $100 +$1 +1%
Will Haiti advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $67 +$2 +3%
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Jun 20 $781 +$9 +1%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 30? Jun 20 $562 +$38 +7%
Will Alan Wilson win the South Carolina Republican Governor Primary Ru Jun 20 $12 −$12 -99%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 26? Jun 20 $9 −$4 -40%
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 20 $772 −$9 -1%
Will Charles Park be the Democratic Nominee for NY-06? Jun 20 $28 −$6 -22%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? Jun 19 $546 +$7 +1%
Will G2 reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 19 $956 +$44 +5%
Will Team Vitality win Valorant Masters London 2026? Jun 19 $302 +$36 +12%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 19 $1,053 +$26 +2%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 19 $10 +$2 +20%
Will the announcers say "History" during the Brazil vs Haiti FIFA Worl Jun 19 $351 +$79 +22%
Will Databricks' valuation hit (HIGH) $250B by June 30? Jun 19 $95 +$14 +14%
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (LOW) $600B by December 31? Jun 19 $337 +$30 +9%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026? Jun 19 $852 +$38 +4%
Will Netanyahu publicly insult Trump by June 30? Jun 19 $215 +$7 +3%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $497 +$3 +1%
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $695 −$77 -11%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 18 $730 −$307 -42%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $550 −$54 -10%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $1,305 +$20 +2%
Will Trump publicly insult Mojtaba Khamenei by Friday? Jun 18 $13 $0 +3%
Will Paraguay reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $6 +$1 +20%
Will David Ospina be in Colombia's Starting 11? Jun 18 $51 +$4 +8%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 17 $1,908 +$88 +5%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet Jun 17 $9,940 +$57 +1%
Will Dan Burn be in England's Starting 11? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will James Trafford be in England's Starting 11? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Francisco Trincão be in Portugal's Starting 11? Jun 17 $84 +$4 +5%
Will Rúben Neves be in Portugal's Starting 11? Jun 17 $83 +$10 +12%
Will Jordan Henderson be in England's Starting 11? Jun 17 $6 −$2 -40%
Will James Rodríguez be in Colombia's Starting 11? Jun 17 $29 $0 -0%
Will Perplexity's valuation hit (HIGH) $25B by June 30? Jun 17 $154 +$3 +2%
Will Matheus Nunes be in Portugal's Starting 11? Jun 17 $0 $0 -52%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 16, 2026? Jun 17 $950 +$50 +5%
Will Gonçalo Inácio be in Portugal's Starting 11? Jun 17 $47 $0 +0%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? Jun 17 $309 −$71 -23%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 17 $2,906 +$52 +2%
Will Nico O'Reilly be in England's Starting 11? Jun 17 $26 $0 +0%
Will Antonio Gracias be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating Spac Jun 17 $0 $0 -81%
Will Michael McCord be the Democratic Nominee for GA-01? Jun 17 $18 $0 +3%
Will Nicolás Tagliafico be in Argentina's Starting 11? Jun 17 $68 +$4 +5%
Will Nahuel Molina be in Argentina's Starting 11? Jun 17 $4 $0 +9%
Will Facundo Medina be in Argentina's Starting 11? Jun 17 $92 +$6 +7%
Will Mark Juncosa be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX' Jun 17 $54 +$1 +2%
Will FUT Esports win Valorant Masters London 2026? Jun 17 $978 +$33 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Leviatán win Valorant Masters London 2026? BUY No 68¢ $171 21m
Will Leviatán win Valorant Masters London 2026? BUY No 68¢ $34 48m
Will Japan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 86¢ $248 1h
Will Vance shake hands with an Iranian official by June 20? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Tunisia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes 6¢ $30 1h
Will Adriano Espaillat win the NY-13 Democratic Primary by 10% or more SELL No 79¢ $88 2h
Will Anduril's valuation hit (HIGH) $200B by December 31? SELL Yes 8¢ $0 2h
Will Masoud Pezeshkian attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? BUY No 95¢ $284 3h
Will Brad Lander win the NY-10 Democratic Primary by 10–20%? BUY No 85¢ $128 3h
Will Vance shake hands with an Iranian official by June 20? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 4h
Will Bangladesh recognize Israel by December 31? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 4h
Will Adriano Espaillat win the NY-13 Democratic Primary by 10% or more BUY No 84¢ $93 5h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 80¢ $1,204 5h
Will Trump meet with Mohammed bin Salman in June 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $7 5h
Will the Democratic Party win the KS-04 House seat? SELL No 87¢ $32 6h
Will Trump meet with Mohammed bin Salman in June 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 6h
Will Bangladesh recognize Israel by December 31? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 7h
Will Trump pardon SBF by July 31? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 7h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Xi Jinping by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 7h
Will Trump meet with Mohammed bin Salman in June 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 8h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi BUY No 82¢ $98 9h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi SELL No 85¢ $102 11h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? SELL No 89¢ $790 13h
Will Dan Cox win the 2026 Maryland Governor Republican primary electio BUY No 14¢ $28 14h
Will Alan Wilson win the South Carolina Republican Governor Primary Ru SELL Yes 0¢ $0 14h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 26? SELL Yes 2¢ $5 15h
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election SELL No 3¢ $9 15h
Will Charles Park be the Democratic Nominee for NY-06? SELL Yes 5¢ $22 15h
Will Charles Park be the Democratic Nominee for NY-06? BUY Yes 6¢ $6 16h
Will Charles Park be the Democratic Nominee for NY-06? BUY Yes 6¢ $9 16h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29,320.85 · official $29,353.55 (match) · 3500 history records