Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T00:52:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DB 0xdb40…e00c world 29 markets active 0h ago coverage 450d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate41%12W / 17L
Drawdown93%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 74% −$1
other 13% $0
politics 8% −$1
sports 2% $0
crypto 2% +$1
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +0.0% -9.5% 38% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 13 +0.0% -9.5% 31% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 13 +0.0% -9.5% 31% 0% -9.6%
all 29 +0.0% -9.5% 41% 0% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 0% -9.5%
10% -18.2% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.62 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.06 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

450d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses12 / 17
Open positions0
Markets (closed)29 / 29
History coverage450d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown93%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 29 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $41 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 15 $46 $0 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 15 $4 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $74 −$1 -2%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 14 $72 $0 +1%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $14 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 12 $20 $0 +2%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $46 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $87 $0 -0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 10 $46 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $46 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 09 $42 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 08 $42 $0 +0%
Will Borussia Dortmund win the FIFA Club World Cup? Dec 11 $1 $0 +3%
Will Rumble buy TikTok? Dec 11 $11 $0 +4%
Will Lee Jae-myung win 35-40% of the vote in the South Korea election? Jun 06 $2 $0 +1%
Will Jean-Marc Aveline be the next pope? May 09 $1 $0 +1%
Will Stephon Castle win NBA Rookie of the Year? May 06 $14 $0 -1%
Will Trump sell 101-1k Gold Cards in 2025? Apr 18 $12 −$1 -5%
Will Justin Thomas win The 2025 Masters? Apr 15 $12 $0 +4%
Will Jimmy Patronis win by less than 20%? Apr 09 $12 $0 +0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2025 World Series? Apr 08 $12 $0 +0%
Will Kim Moon-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? Apr 07 $1 $0 -5%
Will Trump pardon 250-499 Jan 6 protestors in his first 100 days? Apr 07 $16 $0 +1%
Will Scott Stringer win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York C Apr 06 $15 $0 +0%
Will Frankfurt win the UEFA Europa League? Apr 04 $15 $0 +0%
Will Karoline Leavitt be out as White House Press Secretary in Trump's Apr 03 $15 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 again by March 31? Apr 02 $13 +$1 +5%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 01 $1 $0 -8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 47¢ $41 1m
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 47¢ $41 1h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $45 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $46 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 14¢ $4 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 14¢ $4 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 29¢ $18 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 29¢ $13 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 30¢ $32 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 60¢ $47 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 60¢ $47 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 36¢ $24 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 36¢ $24 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 37¢ $17 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 37¢ $4 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 37¢ $14 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 59¢ $15 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 59¢ $11 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $26 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $14 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $14 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 46¢ $21 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 45¢ $15 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 45¢ $5 5d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $46 6d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $46 6d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $34 7d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $8 7d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $41 7d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL No 57¢ $46 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 92 history records