Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T13:26:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
DB 0xdb3c…a471 sports 189 markets active 0h ago coverage 128d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$32 (+1%) realized +$6 · open +$26
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate45%84W / 103L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day3.3pace
Fees−$53est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$55now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$22
7 days−$3
14 days−$3
30 days−$23
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 86% +$151
crypto 8% −$94
weather 3% −$9
other 3% −$47
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-16.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -13.4% -21.7% 50% 25% -12.3%
≤30d 5 -30.7% -37.3% 40% 20% -26.7%
≤90d 65 -2.7% -11.9% 43% 35% -7.7%
all 187 -7.9% -16.7% 45% 36% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.7% 36% -9.9%
10% -24.7% 33% -18.6%
15% -31.9% 29% -26.4%
20% -38.6% 19% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$11 · ×1.19 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

128d coverage
Net worth$55
Realized+$6
Unrealized+$26
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses84 / 103
Est. fees paid−$53
Open positions1
Markets (closed)187 / 189
History coverage128d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day3.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 187 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Wimbledon ATP: Emilio Nava vs Ignacio Buse Ignacio Buse 52¢ 100¢ $29 $55 +$26 (+91%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Wimbledon ATP: Andrey Rublev vs Roman Safiullin Jun 29 $25 −$2 -10%
PortlandFire vs. Washington Mystics Jun 28 $50 +$24 +48%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $25 −$25 -99%
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs TEAM VISION (BO3) - The International Europe Clo Jun 25 $2 $0 +8%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Team Liquid PH vs Team Falcons PH (BO7) - MP Jun 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 25 $91 −$50 -55%
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs TNC - Map 2 Winner May 24 $20 −$20 -100%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: ONIC PH vs Team Liquid PH (BO3) - MPL Philip May 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 23 $51 −$13 -25%
Spread: Spurs (-2.5) May 23 $51 −$16 -31%
Spread: Thunder (-6.5) May 23 $50 +$2 +5%
LoL: Supernova vs Conviction (BO3) - North American Challengers League May 23 $20 −$10 -48%
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 22 $10 $0 -1%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Xtreme Gaming (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 22 $152 −$46 -30%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Weibo Gaming (BO5) - Esports World Cup China Qualifi May 22 $51 +$24 +48%
Valorant: T1 vs Nongshim RedForce (BO3) - Esports World Cup Pacific Qu May 22 $51 −$24 -48%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 22 $51 +$26 +52%
Counter-Strike: Lynn Vision vs NIP (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Group May 21 $20 +$15 +73%
Counter-Strike: BC.Game Esports vs paiN (BO3) - CS Asia Championships May 21 $25 +$12 +48%
Valorant: Evil Geniuses vs Sentinels (BO3) - Esports World Cup America May 21 $15 +$8 +56%
Counter-Strike: Vexa vs Red Feet (BO3) - CCT South America Series 2 Gr May 21 $20 +$11 +53%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 21 $51 −$41 -80%
Boston Red Sox vs. Kansas City Royals May 21 $20 −$12 -61%
LoL: Maryville University vs Conviction (BO3) - North American Challen May 21 $20 −$8 -38%
Counter-Strike: Lavked vs ex-Zero Tenacity (BO3) - BC Game Masters Eur May 20 $101 −$21 -21%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 2 Group Sta May 20 $57 −$14 -24%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs KT Rolster (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 20 $106 −$13 -12%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs PARIVISION (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Group May 20 $51 +$116 +226%
Counter-Strike: Young Ninjas vs Misa Esports (BO3) - CCT Europe Closed May 20 $51 −$20 -40%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 20 $102 +$119 +117%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy (BO3) - LCK Ch May 19 $51 −$3 -6%
Counter-Strike: Hashiras vs Young Ninjas (BO3) - CCT Europe Closed Qua May 19 $20 −$14 -68%
Counter-Strike: Eternal Fire vs Rune Eaters (BO3) - BC Game Masters Eu May 19 $20 −$7 -33%
Internationaux de Strasbourg: Diane Parry vs Emma Raducanu May 19 $46 −$9 -19%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 19 $130 +$2 +2%
Connecticut Sun vs. Portland Fire May 19 $24 +$17 +71%
Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels May 19 $20 −$3 -15%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 217.5 May 19 $20 −$1 -6%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Tundra Esports (BO1) - DreamLeague Group B May 18 $20 +$8 +42%
Dota 2: PlayTime vs Tundra Esports (BO1) - DreamLeague Group B May 18 $25 +$7 +26%
Geneva Open: Arthur Rinderknech vs Thiago Agustin Tirante May 18 $20 −$12 -58%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Just Players (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 2 Gro May 18 $20 +$17 +84%
LoL: DN SOOPers Challengers vs Kiwoom DRX Challengers (BO3) - LCK Chal May 18 $20 +$1 +4%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 216.5 May 18 $20 −$20 -100%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO3) - LCK Challengers Leagu May 18 $20 +$11 +56%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 18 $20 +$32 +158%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: RRQ Hoshi vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - MPL Indon May 17 $25 +$14 +55%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Team Rey vs Bigetron MY by VIT (BO3) - MPL M May 17 $20 +$10 +51%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Dewa United Esports vs EVOS (BO3) - MPL Indo May 17 $10 −$1 -10%
MVP Fight Night: Nate Diaz vs. Mike Perry May 17 $25 +$16 +62%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Wimbledon ATP: Andrey Rublev vs Roman Safiullin SELL Andrey Rublev 51¢ $23 17m
Wimbledon ATP: Andrey Rublev vs Roman Safiullin BUY Andrey Rublev 55¢ $25 30m
Wimbledon ATP: Emilio Nava vs Ignacio Buse BUY Ignacio Buse 52¢ $29 1h
PortlandFire vs. Washington Mystics BUY Washington Mystics 67¢ $50 15h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 55¢ $25 3d
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs TEAM VISION (BO3) - The International Europe Clo SELL TEAM VISION 54¢ $3 3d
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs TEAM VISION (BO3) - The International Europe Clo BUY TEAM VISION 48¢ $2 3d
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 2.5 AND Will United States win on 2026- BUY 4¢ $5 4d
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Team Liquid PH vs Team Falcons PH (BO7) - MP BUY Team Falcons PH 21¢ $20 29d
Thunder vs. Spurs SELL Thunder 21¢ $41 35d
Thunder vs. Spurs BUY Thunder 45¢ $91 35d
Thunder vs. Spurs SELL Spurs 44¢ $38 37d
Spread: Spurs (-2.5) SELL Spurs 37¢ $35 37d
Spread: Thunder (-6.5) SELL Spurs 75¢ $15 37d
Spread: Thunder (-6.5) SELL Spurs 74¢ $7 37d
Spread: Thunder (-6.5) SELL Spurs 78¢ $30 37d
Spread: Spurs (-2.5) BUY Spurs 52¢ $51 37d
Spread: Thunder (-6.5) BUY Spurs 72¢ $50 37d
Thunder vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 57¢ $51 37d
LoL: Supernova vs Conviction (BO3) - North American Challengers League SELL Supernova 30¢ $10 37d
LoL: Supernova vs Conviction (BO3) - North American Challengers League BUY Supernova 56¢ $20 37d
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 19¢ $2 37d
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 81¢ $8 37d
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Xtreme Gaming (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs SELL Tundra Esports 38¢ $45 37d
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Xtreme Gaming (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs BUY Tundra Esports 42¢ $51 37d
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Xtreme Gaming (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs SELL Tundra Esports 35¢ $62 37d
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Xtreme Gaming (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs BUY Tundra Esports 56¢ $101 38d
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs TNC - Map 2 Winner BUY Ursa 68¢ $20 38d
LoL: JD Gaming vs Weibo Gaming (BO5) - Esports World Cup China Qualifi SELL JD Gaming 64¢ $75 38d
LoL: JD Gaming vs Weibo Gaming (BO5) - Esports World Cup China Qualifi BUY JD Gaming 42¢ $51 38d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $55.41 · official $55.41 (match) · 491 history records