Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T03:03:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DB 0xdb3a…d1cc sports 13 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ bot/MM pace (332 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$599 (-2%) realized −$599 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -28% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -47% what you keep after slip
Net edge-47%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate31%4W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,974per market
Trades / day331.9pace
Fees−$349est.
Kalshi-fit54%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 62% +$300
sports 38% +$331
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (332 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-34.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -27.7% -34.6% 31% 15% -5.1%
≤30d 13 -27.7% -34.6% 31% 15% -5.1%
≤90d 13 -27.7% -34.6% 31% 15% -5.1%
all 13 -27.7% -34.6% 31% 15% -5.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover331.9 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -34.6% 15% -5.1%
10% -40.8% 8% -14.2%
15% ← realistic here -46.6% 8% -22.5%
20% -51.8% 8% -30.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 66% · top 2 85% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -28% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -41% → late -16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
19.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$719 vs −$249 · ×2.88 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.28 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$599
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses4 / 9
Est. fees paid−$349
Open positions0
Markets (closed)13 / 13
History coverage1d
Avg bet$1,974
Trades / day331.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit54%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 13 Trades
no open positions (6 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $5,355 −$193 -4%
Brazil vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $80 −$13 -16%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $300 −$300 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $206 −$136 -66%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $999 +$1,905 +191%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $4,177 +$261 +6%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $2,392 −$841 -35%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $5,640 −$280 -5%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $1,087 −$256 -24%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $2,001 +$173 +9%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 19 $2,783 +$537 +19%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 Jun 18 $100 −$100 -100%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $542 −$127 -24%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 54¢ $871 45m
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 60¢ $857 46m
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 56¢ $10 47m
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 56¢ $84 47m
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 56¢ $4 47m
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 56¢ $29 47m
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 56¢ $55 47m
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 56¢ $382 47m
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 56¢ $353 47m
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 58¢ $19 47m
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 58¢ $395 47m
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 58¢ $296 47m
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 58¢ $110 47m
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 58¢ $8 47m
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 40¢ $324 48m
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 37¢ $93 49m
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 37¢ $211 49m
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 64¢ $1,684 50m
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 64¢ $1,426 50m
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 63¢ $517 50m
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 65¢ $219 50m
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 66¢ $99 50m
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 66¢ $66 50m
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 65¢ $114 50m
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 65¢ $224 50m
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 72¢ $1,038 50m
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 66¢ $418 50m
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 67¢ $609 50m
Brazil vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 2.5 SELL Over 17¢ $10 1h
Brazil vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 2.5 SELL Over 17¢ $43 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 392 history records