Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T07:43:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
DB 0xdb39…df81 other 14 markets active 1h ago coverage 49d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$140 (-5%) realized −$140 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate77%10W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$202per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit0%portable
Net worth$30now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$282
14 days−$260
30 days−$191
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% −$158
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-13.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -89.1% -90.1% 0% 0% -90.1%
≤30d 5 -11.2% -19.7% 80% 20% -21.5%
≤90d 13 -3.8% -13.0% 77% 8% -14.6%
all 13 -3.8% -13.0% 77% 8% -14.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.0% 8% -14.6%
10% -21.3% 0% -22.8%
15% -28.9% 0% -30.3%
20% -35.9% 0% -37.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 29% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$112 · ×0.16 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.53 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

49d coverage
Net worth$30
Realized−$140
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)77%
Wins / losses10 / 3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)13 / 14
History coverage49d
Avg bet$202
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 13 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? No 93¢ 92¢ $31 $30 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $316 −$282 -89%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 06 $304 +$22 +7%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 03 $290 +$20 +7%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 28 to May 30, 2026? May 30 $276 +$20 +7%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? May 25 $252 +$30 +12%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026? May 18 $241 +$16 +6%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 14 to May 16, 2026? May 16 $229 +$18 +8%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 9 to May 11, 2026? May 11 $209 +$20 +9%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? May 08 $199 +$14 +7%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? May 05 $126 −$26 -21%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? May 05 $129 −$30 -23%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 2 to May 4, 2026? May 05 $124 +$12 +9%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? May 02 $99 +$10 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $31 1h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $35 5d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 92¢ $316 5d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? BUY Yes 93¢ $304 12d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? BUY Yes 93¢ $290 16d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 28 to May 30, 2026? BUY Yes 93¢ $276 19d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? BUY Yes 89¢ $252 24d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026? BUY Yes 94¢ $241 32d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 14 to May 16, 2026? BUY Yes 92¢ $229 34d
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 9 to May 11, 2026? BUY Yes 91¢ $209 39d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? BUY Yes 93¢ $199 42d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? SELL Yes 57¢ $100 44d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? BUY Yes 69¢ $126 44d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? SELL Yes 72¢ $99 44d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? BUY Yes 92¢ $129 44d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 2 to May 4, 2026? BUY Yes 91¢ $124 45d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? BUY Yes 91¢ $99 48d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $30.50 · official $30.50 (match) · 27 history records