Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T20:11:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
DB 0xdb38…2ce9 sports 95 markets active 1h ago coverage 27d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$7 (-1%) realized −$7 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate55%51W / 42L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day4.2pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$10now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$18
7 days−$44
14 days−$16
30 days−$21
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% −$16
politics 1% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-15.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -34.9% -41.1% 33% 33% -36.4%
≤30d 93 -6.8% -15.7% 55% 55% -12.8%
≤90d 93 -6.8% -15.7% 55% 55% -12.8%
all 93 -6.8% -15.7% 55% 55% -12.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.7% 55% -12.8%
10% -23.7% 55% -21.2%
15% -31.1% 53% -28.8%
20% -37.8% 39% -35.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$6 · ×0.75 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

27d coverage
Net worth$10
Realized−$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses51 / 42
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions2
Markets (closed)93 / 95
History coverage27d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day4.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 93 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves Atlanta Braves 61¢ 60¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Toronto Blue Jays 52¢ 52¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 16 $5 +$2 +46%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Jun 16 $5 +$5 +103%
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 15 $5 $0 -7%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 15 $5 $0 -7%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 14 $10 +$9 +88%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 14 $10 +$10 +95%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 13 $10 +$5 +48%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 13 $10 +$4 +42%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 12 $5 +$3 +58%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 09 $5 +$3 +66%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 09 $5 +$3 +56%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 09 $5 +$4 +78%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 08 $5 +$3 +56%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 08 $10 +$12 +114%
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 07 $5 +$4 +72%
Washington Nationals vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 06 $5 −$5 -100%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 06 $5 +$3 +63%
Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 06 $5 +$4 +84%
Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 06 $5 −$5 -100%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 06 $5 −$5 -100%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 06 $5 +$4 +69%
San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 04 $5 −$5 -100%
San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 04 $5 +$2 +48%
Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankees Jun 04 $5 +$3 +60%
Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankees Jun 04 $5 −$5 -100%
San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 04 $5 +$2 +46%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 04 $5 +$4 +69%
New York Mets vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 03 $5 +$4 +72%
Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankees Jun 03 $5 −$5 -100%
San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 03 $10 +$4 +40%
Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 02 $5 −$5 -96%
Kansas City Royals vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 02 $5 −$5 -100%
San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 02 $5 +$3 +67%
Atlanta Braves vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 01 $5 −$5 -100%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 01 $5 +$2 +47%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers May 31 $5 +$2 +42%
New York Yankees vs. Athletics May 31 $5 +$3 +58%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Seattle Mariners May 31 $5 +$3 +66%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Atlanta Braves 61¢ $5 1h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Toronto Blue Jays 52¢ $5 1h
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Chicago Cubs 67¢ $5 28h
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros BUY Detroit Tigers 48¢ $5 28h
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians SELL Detroit Tigers 52¢ $5 28h
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians BUY Detroit Tigers 53¢ $5 28h
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox SELL Atlanta Braves 52¢ $5 43h
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 65¢ $5 2d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 65¢ $10 2d
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets BUY Atlanta Braves 47¢ $10 2d
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Los Angeles Angels 50¢ $10 3d
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants BUY Chicago Cubs 52¢ $10 3d
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Milwaukee Brewers 61¢ $10 3d
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 66¢ $10 4d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 62¢ $10 4d
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Milwaukee Brewers 69¢ $10 4d
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY Seattle Mariners 51¢ $5 4d
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Atlanta Braves 53¢ $5 5d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 62¢ $5 5d
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies BUY Chicago Cubs 60¢ $5 5d
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Detroit Tigers 61¢ $5 5d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 67¢ $5 5d
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies BUY Chicago Cubs 60¢ $5 6d
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Houston Astros 54¢ $5 6d
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Atlanta Braves 59¢ $5 7d
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics BUY Milwaukee Brewers 59¢ $5 8d
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Philadelphia Phillies 63¢ $5 8d
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY Seattle Mariners 55¢ $5 8d
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Atlanta Braves 38¢ $5 9d
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Colorado Rockies BUY Milwaukee Brewers 63¢ $5 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9.81 · official $9.81 (match) · 193 history records