Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T05:05:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
DB 0xdb2f…e0e0 crypto 36 markets active 1h ago coverage 231d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$7 (-0%) realized −$7 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate76%25W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$319per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$120now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 88% −$10
crypto 7% +$2
tech 1% −$70
other 1% −$1
world 1% $0
economics 0% $0
weather 0% +$1
culture 0% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-14.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 4 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 9 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.3%
all 33 -5.7% -14.7% 76% 0% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.7% 0% -10.1%
10% -22.9% 0% -18.7%
15% -30.3% 0% -26.6%
20% -37.2% 0% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$10 · ×0.01 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.05 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

231d coverage
Net worth$120
Realized−$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses25 / 8
Open positions3
Markets (closed)33 / 36
History coverage231d
Avg bet$319
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 33 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Iran leadership change by June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $100 $100 −$0 (-0%)
2026 Balance of Power: Other No 99¢ 99¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31 Jun 29 $10 $0 +0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 29 $10 $0 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $50 in May? Jun 29 $10 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? Jun 29 $270 $0 +0%
Military action against Iran ends on April 12, 2026? May 25 $10 $0 +0%
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? May 25 $10 $0 +0%
Will San Marino win Eurovision 2026? May 25 $10 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $200 in April? May 25 $94 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in April? May 25 $200 +$1 +0%
Will Mette Frederiksen be the next prime minister of Denmark after the Mar 24 $1 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 15°C or higher on March 24? Mar 24 $1 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on March 24? Mar 24 $18 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 13°C on March 24? Mar 24 $23 $0 +2%
EdgeX FDV above $10B one day after launch? Mar 24 $47 $0 +1%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch? Mar 24 $60 −$1 -2%
US strikes Iran by February 7, 2026? Mar 24 $11 $0 +1%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Mar 24 $11 $0 +2%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m Mar 24 $20 $0 +1%
AI Industry Downturn by March 31, 2026? Feb 07 $11 $0 -0%
Will "I Just Might - Bruno Mars" be the #1 song on Spotify this week? Feb 07 $11 $0 +1%
Will the Iranian regime fall by January 31? Feb 07 $12 $0 +1%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Feb 07 $20 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $125,000 in January? Feb 07 $94 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $500 before 2026? Jan 26 $20 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 26 $20 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 26 $20 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Jan 26 $23 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $8,000 by December 31? Jan 26 $25 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $580 before 2026? Jan 26 $40 $0 +0%
Will Google (GOOGL) close at $275-$280 on the final day of trading of Dec 08 $70 −$35 -50%
Will Google (GOOGL) close at $270-$275 on the final day of trading of Dec 08 $70 −$35 -50%
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Nov 10 $5,053 −$5 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Nov 10 $5,058 −$5 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $100 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $270 34d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $10 34d
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31 BUY No 100¢ $10 34d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $50 in May? BUY No 100¢ $10 34d
2026 Balance of Power: Other BUY No 99¢ $10 34d
Will Ethereum dip to $200 in April? BUY No 100¢ $94 79d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $200 79d
Will San Marino win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10 79d
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10 79d
Military action against Iran ends on April 12, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10 79d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $10 79d
Will Mette Frederiksen be the next prime minister of Denmark after the SELL No 13¢ $1 97d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 15°C or higher on March 24? SELL No 51¢ $1 97d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 15°C or higher on March 24? BUY No 51¢ $1 97d
Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on March 24? SELL No 46¢ $9 97d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 13°C on March 24? SELL Yes 49¢ $24 97d
Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on March 24? BUY No 45¢ $9 97d
Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on March 24? SELL Yes 54¢ $10 97d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 13°C on March 24? BUY Yes 48¢ $9 97d
Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on March 24? BUY Yes 54¢ $7 97d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 13°C on March 24? BUY Yes 48¢ $9 97d
Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on March 24? BUY Yes 54¢ $3 97d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 13°C on March 24? BUY Yes 48¢ $5 97d
Will Mette Frederiksen be the next prime minister of Denmark after the BUY No 13¢ $1 97d
EdgeX FDV above $10B one day after launch? SELL No 100¢ $47 97d
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch? SELL No 96¢ $59 97d
EdgeX FDV above $10B one day after launch? BUY No 99¢ $47 141d
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch? BUY No 98¢ $60 141d
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? BUY No 98¢ $11 141d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $119.65 · official $119.65 (match) · 131 history records