Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:46:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DB 0xdb27…ebb6 crypto 17 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$136 (-16%) realized −$135 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -30% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -46% what you keep after slip
Net edge-46%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate38%6W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$51per market
Trades / day41.0pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$17now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 60% −$315
sports 28% +$99
other 12% −$100
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-36.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -30.2% -36.8% 38% 38% -43.4%
≤30d 16 -30.2% -36.8% 38% 38% -43.4%
≤90d 16 -30.2% -36.8% 38% 38% -43.4%
all 16 -30.2% -36.8% 38% 38% -43.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover41.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -36.8% 38% -43.4%
10% ← realistic here -42.9% 38% -48.8%
15% -48.4% 38% -53.8%
20% -53.5% 38% -58.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 58% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -38% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -30% · $-wt -38% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -49% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$41 vs −$56 · ×0.73 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.44 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$17
Realized−$135
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses6 / 10
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)16 / 17
History coverage1d
Avg bet$51
Trades / day41.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 16 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 17? Up 11¢ 10¢ $18 $17 −$1 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$7 +65%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 17 $97 −$92 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 17 $51 +$29 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 17 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 17 $63 −$60 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 17 $61 −$60 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 17 $52 +$34 +66%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $88 +$108 +124%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $52 +$35 +67%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $24 +$34 +139%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -94%
Will Lionel Messi score 1+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $102 −$100 -98%
Algeria to score first vs. Argentina? Jun 16 $51 −$50 -98%
Spread: Algeria (-1.5) Jun 16 $21 −$20 -97%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 16 $8 −$8 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 16 $141 −$141 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 17? BUY Up 11¢ $19 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $5 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $5 27m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $5 41m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $91 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $26 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $26 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $26 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $26 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $5 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $5 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $26 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $5 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $25 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $26 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET SELL Down 100¢ $86 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $26 1h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 44¢ $88 7h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 59¢ $52 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $5 12h
Spread: France (-1.5) SELL France 100¢ $58 12h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 41¢ $24 19h
Will Lionel Messi score 1+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 34¢ $102 19h
Algeria to score first vs. Argentina? BUY Yes 23¢ $51 19h
Spread: Algeria (-1.5) BUY Algeria 3¢ $21 19h
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY France 22¢ $8 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $0 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $0 19h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $16.84 · official $16.84 (match) · 48 history records