Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T19:24:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DB 0xdb22…9006 other 20 markets active 2h ago coverage 42d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$98 (-22%) realized −$98 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -29% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate28%5W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit30%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$130
7 days−$208
14 days−$167
30 days−$167
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 55% −$126
sports 45% −$94
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-35.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -48.5% -53.4% 10% 10% -73.1%
≤30d 16 -19.7% -27.4% 31% 31% -36.6%
≤90d 18 -28.7% -35.4% 28% 28% -46.8%
all 18 -28.7% -35.4% 28% 28% -46.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -35.4% 28% -46.8%
10% -41.6% 28% -51.9%
15% -47.3% 22% -56.5%
20% -52.4% 22% -60.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 74% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -66% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -29% · $-wt -66% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late -43% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$24 · ×0.75 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.29 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

42d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$98
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses5 / 13
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)18 / 20
History coverage42d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit30%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 18 Trades
no open positions (11 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Brazil vs. Japan: Japan O/U 1.5 Jun 29 $82 −$80 -98%
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance Jun 29 $41 −$40 -98%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $10 −$10 -98%
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals Jun 26 $5 −$5 -98%
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals Jun 26 $92 −$90 -98%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $10 −$4 -37%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $10 +$36 +352%
Ecuador vs. Germany: Germany O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $5 −$5 -98%
Neymar Jr: 1+ goals Jun 24 $6 −$6 -98%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 3+ goals Jun 23 $5 −$5 -97%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $51 +$30 +59%
Raphinha: 1+ assists Jun 20 $10 −$2 -24%
Endrick: 1+ goals Jun 20 $10 +$3 +32%
Raphinha: 1+ goals Jun 20 $10 +$10 +97%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $10 +$11 +105%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Haiti O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Neymar be included in Brazil's official 2026 World Cup squad list May 18 $34 −$33 -98%
Will Endrick be included in Brazil's official 2026 World Cup squad lis May 18 $21 −$20 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Brazil vs. Japan: Japan O/U 1.5 BUY Over 35¢ $82 1h
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance BUY Japan 27¢ $41 5h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 25¢ $10 44h
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals BUY Yes 33¢ $5 2d
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals SELL Yes $0 2d
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals BUY Yes 29¢ $92 3d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes $6 3d
Michael Olise: 1+ assists AND Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals BUY 25¢ $10 3d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 3d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 100¢ $46 3d
Ecuador vs. Germany: Germany O/U 1.5 BUY Over 21¢ $5 3d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 3d
Neymar Jr: 1+ goals BUY Yes 17¢ $6 4d
Cristiano Ronaldo: 3+ goals BUY Yes $5 6d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND Wi BUY 13¢ $10 8d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $81 8d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 62¢ $51 9d
Raphinha: 1+ assists SELL No 53¢ $8 9d
Endrick: 1+ goals SELL No 100¢ $13 9d
Raphinha: 1+ goals SELL No 100¢ $20 9d
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 100¢ $21 9d
Endrick: 1+ goals BUY No 75¢ $10 9d
Brazil vs. Haiti: Haiti O/U 0.5 BUY Over 29¢ $10 9d
Raphinha: 1+ assists BUY No 68¢ $10 9d
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 48¢ $10 9d
Raphinha: 1+ goals BUY No 50¢ $10 9d
Will Neymar be included in Brazil's official 2026 World Cup squad list BUY No 16¢ $34 42d
Will Endrick be included in Brazil's official 2026 World Cup squad lis BUY No 11¢ $21 42d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 28 history records